The budget deficit continues to rise sharply. Three months into the 2020-21 fiscal year, tax payments received by HMRC are down by 35 per cent on last year, while central government spending is up 40 per cent. But year-to-date borrowing is lower than assumed in the central scenario from our Fiscal sustainability report. That reflects lower departmental spending and loan guarantee write-off costs that are not yet incorporated in the outturn data, as well as surprisingly strong June tax receipts.