Other news

Chancellor banks most of modest fiscal windfall

Stronger income tax receipts and lower debt interest payments have delivered the Chancellor a modest fiscal windfall. His higher public spending plans offset only a little of that, with most banked to provide greater headroom against his structural borrowing target in 2020-21. But he is still not yet on course to balance the budget by…

Overview of the March 2019 Economic and fiscal outlook

Economic growth in the UK and globally has slowed since the Budget in October, leading us to revise down our near-term GDP forecast. But tax receipts have performed better than we expected in the final months of 2018-19 and we judge that much of this buoyancy will endure. Together with downward pressure on debt interest…

Deficit continues to fall sharply in 2018-19

Double-digit growth in tax receipts in January generated a record monthly budget surplus, up sharply relative to last year. Over the first ten months of 2018-19, borrowing is now down almost half relative to the same period in 2017-18 – a slightly larger fall than implied by our latest full-year forecast.

Deficit continues to fall significantly in 2018-19

Higher spending pushed borrowing up slightly in December, relative to last year. But over the first nine months of 2018-19, borrowing is still down by more than a quarter relative to the same period in 2017-18.

Overview of the January 2019 Welfare trends report

One of the main functions of the welfare system is to support people having difficulty supporting themselves due to ill health or disability. This role stretches back more than a century – at least as far as the National Insurance Act of 1911. The financial support provided by today’s welfare system can be split into…

Deficit up in October but down sharply so far in 2018-19

Higher spending growth in October pushed the deficit up relative to last October. But strong receipts growth means borrowing in the first seven months of 2018-19 is still down almost 30 per cent relative to the same period in 2017-18.

Supplementary forecast information release

Since the publication of our October 2018 Economic and fiscal outlook we have received requests for further detail on the marriage tax allowance and entrepreneurial reliefs. We have published this new supplementary forecast information on the October 2018 EFO page.

Policy costings document October 2018

October 2018 All policies presented to the Office for Budget Responsibility at Budget 2018 were included in our forecasts but three could not be certified as reasonable, central estimates. The Government’s Budget 2018 policy costings document briefly describes the methodologies underpinning these costings. In our October 2018 Economic and fiscal outlook we have published an assessment on…

Overview of the October 2018 Economic and fiscal outlook

At first glance the outlook for the public finances in the medium term looks much the same as it did in March. But this masks a significant improvement in the underlying pace of deficit reduction, that on its own would have put the Government on course to achieve its objective of a balanced budget for…

Strong receipts growth keeps deficit falling

Strong tax receipts and lower debt interest payments are sustaining a sharp fall in the budget deficit relative to last year. Extrapolating performance over the year to date would see the full-year deficit come in £11 billion lower than forecast in March, however the recent strength of cash corporation tax receipts is not yet being…

European Fiscal Board reviews work of the OBR

The independent European Fiscal Board, created to examine the EU fiscal framework and aggregate policy stance, has reviewed the work of the OBR in its Annual Report. It argues that the OBR has retained “a high degree of public trust in its ability to provide objective assessments of the macroeconomic outlook and public finances”. Read…

Discussion paper No.3 Brexit and the OBR's forecasts (alongside image of map of the UK)

Brexit and our forecasts

Since the referendum we have incorporated Brexit into our forecasts using broad brush assumptions, but as Government policy decisions and developments begin to unfold, we look ahead to the issues we will need to consider when we refine these judgements. In our new paper, we begin to consider how our forecasts might change in this…

OBR Working Paper series

The latest in our series of Working Papers were published on 28 September 2018. Working paper No.13: In-year fiscal forecasting and monitoring presents our approach to in-year forecasting and monitoring of the public finances, and discusses how we assess our forecasts against the published data.   Working paper No.14: Devolved income tax: forecasting by tax bands sets…

Year to date borrowing continues to fall

Despite rising in August, borrowing in the first five months of 2018-19 was almost a third lower than in the same period last year. On a like-for-like basis receipts growth has so far outpaced our full-year March forecast, while debt interest spending is already down £2.2 billion on last year.