Category Archive: What’s new

This discussion paper sets out how public investment is accounted for in our fiscal forecast, before exploring the key transmission mechanisms through which it can affect potential output. It then outlines our proposed approach to modelling the impact of public investment on potential output. We assess the time lags between public investment and its impact…

We have published monthly profiles for receipts, spending and borrowing in 2024-25, consistent with our October 2024 Economic and fiscal outlook, below and alongside our monthly commentary on the public finances.

In our November 2023 Economic and fiscal outlook (EFO), we analysed the economic impacts of the Government’s cuts to NICs and allowing full expensing of some business investments. We have published two papers providing further detail on the modelling behind our analysis below and on the November 2023 EFO page.

Our latest Forecast evaluation report (FER) will be published at 11am on Thursday 19 October. Our FER examines how our forecasts compare to subsequent outturn data and identifies lessons for future forecasts. This report will focus on how our March 2021 and March 2022 economy and fiscal forecasts for 2022-23 fared against the outturns.

The aftermath of the pandemic was characterised by a stronger-than-expected recovery in demand. But this bumped up against domestic and international supply constraints, which were compounded by the Russian invasion of Ukraine leading to a sharp rise in inflation. In this year’s Forecast evaluation report, we consider the accuracy of our forecast for the economic…