"It is the duty of the Office to examine and report on the sustainability of the public finances"
On 3 September 2025 the Chancellor commissioned us to publish our latest outlook for the economy and public finances on Wednesday 26 November. We have now agreed the timetable for the forecast process and published the detail below. Update on 14 November: Financial market assumptions and the incorporation of outturn data The window in which…
We have published an update to the Welsh taxes outlook with new forecasts for land transaction tax and landfill disposals tax receipts. The report is available in English and Welsh. Rhagolwg trethi Cymru – diweddariad Hydref 2025 Rydym wedi cyhoeddi diweddariad i ragolygon trethi Cymru gyda rhagolygon newydd ar gyfer derbyniadau treth trafodion tir a threth…
We have published our updated tax and spending ‘ready reckoner’ consistent with our March 2025 Economic and fiscal outlook. Our ready reckoner allows anyone to obtain quick, indicative estimates of the fiscal impact of a particular change in one or more economic variables. Read our article on the ready reckoner to find out more.
The Chancellor has announced that the Budget will take place on Wednesday 26 November 2025. Our latest outlook for the economy and public finances will be released on the same day.
The Chancellor nominated Richard Hughes to serve a second and final term as Chair of the OBR. Following a reappointment hearing, the Treasury Committee of the House of Commons approved the re-appointment on 15 July 2025, saying that they were ‘satisfied that Richard Hughes has the appropriate professional competence and personal independence to continue in…
We have published our response to the third external review which sets out how we are addressing the 11 recommendations made by Laura van Geest in her February 2025 review of the OBR. These recommendations span our independence, analytical infrastructure, and communications impact. We have already implemented the recommendations on independence and are progressing work…
Richard Hughes distils the key messages from our latest Fiscal risks and sustainability report in his press conference presentation and accompanying speaking note. Watch back on YouTube here:
We have published our latest long-term assumptions, consistent with the forecast in our March 2025 Economic and fiscal outlook (EFO) and additional information on the number of award reviews that will be affected by tightening criteria in the March 2025 personal independence payment policy costing, below and on the March 2025 EFO page.
We have published monthly profiles for receipts, spending and borrowing in 2025-26, consistent with our March 2025 Economic and fiscal outlook, below and alongside our monthly commentary on the public finances.
In this paper, we present a new overlapping generations model of the UK economy. It takes a detailed approach to real-world trends around demographics, life-cycle behaviour and differences within and between generations, all in a general equilibrium setting. Calibrated to match UK economic data and reflect key features of our tax, spending and welfare systems,…