Category Archive: What’s new

Borrowing in the first half of 2019-20 was revised down by £5.2 billion, thanks to lower central government spending and lower local authority borrowing. But it rose by £2.3 billion on a year earlier in October alone. That leaves the year-to-date deficit up £4.3 billion on the same period last year – a 10 per…

Publication of our restated forecast will no longer go ahead today following advice from the Cabinet Secretary. As we notified the Treasury and Treasury Select Committee on 29 October, we had planned to publish a technical restatement of our March public finance forecast this morning, bringing it into line with current ONS statistical treatment –…

Mid-way through 2019-20, borrowing is up £7.2 billion on the same point last year, with strong growth in public spending outweighing more modest growth in receipts. Prospects for full-year borrowing will depend on the extent to which spending growth slows – as seems likely – and whether receipts growth is maintained – which depends in…

Borrowing in 2018-19 was revised up by £15.8 billion this month to £41.4 billion, thanks largely to statistical changes. These include planned improvements to the accounting treatment of student loans and a substantial correction to corporation tax data. The effect of the changes in 2019-20 leaves the deficit on course to exceed our March forecast…

The Chancellor used last week’s Spending Round to announce a significant increase in departmental spending in 2020-21. The OBR’s Budget Responsibility Committee gave evidence to the Treasury Select Committee today on the fiscal implications of the announcement. In addition, Robert Chote has written to the Interim Chair, John Mann, explaining our role during a spending…

Borrowing has risen relative to last year in each of the past four months. For the year to date, it is now up £6.0 billion on a year earlier – already a little above the £5.7 billion full-year rise implied by our March forecast. Spending growth has picked up to around twice the rate we…

Since the publication of our March 2019 Economic and fiscal outlook we have received a request for further detail on the VAT standard rated share of consumer spending. We have published this new supplementary forecast information on the March 2019 EFO page.

Governments are there to manage society’s risks, but also risks to the public finances. Our second Fiscal risks report concludes that perennial issues of abrupt shocks, slower-building pressures and risks taken on by choice are largely as they were two years ago. But Brexit risks loom larger as ‘no deal’ is countenanced at the highest…

In 2017 we produced our first Fiscal risks report (FRR), an assessment of the shocks and pressures that could threaten our forecast for the public finances over the medium term and fiscal sustainability over the longer term. In this, our second report, we revisit and broaden that assessment in light of recent economic and fiscal…

Public sector borrowing was higher than last year, both in May and over the year to date. More materially, a forthcoming improvement in the accounting treatment of student loans will raise the measured deficit by more than £10 billion a year. This is close to our estimate from March, when we thought it would reduce…