Borrowing has risen relative to last year in each of the past four months. For the year to date, it is now up £6.0 billion on a year earlier – already a little above the £5.7 billion full-year rise implied by our March forecast. Spending growth has picked up to around twice the rate we assume for the full year. But only four months into the year, it is too early to say for certain that the deficit will exceed our March forecast (like-for-like).
- Coronavirus analysis
- Economic and fiscal outlook
- Fiscal sustainability report
Long-term projections of the UK public finances and public sector balance sheet analysis.
- Forecast evaluation report
Report into how our forecasts compare to subsequent outturn data and identifying lessons for future forecasts.
- Welfare trends report
An in-depth look at the drivers of welfare spending both inside and outside the Government’s welfare cap.
- Fiscal risks report
A report published every two years on the main risks to the public finances.
- Monthly public finance release
Our monthly commentary on the latest public finances data and how it compares to our most recent forecast.
- All other publications
In-depth discussion and technical papers, devolved tax forecasts, press releases and disclosures.
Five year forecasts for the UK economy and public finances and an assessment of whether the Government is likely to achieve its fiscal targets.