Borrowing has risen relative to last year in each of the past four months. For the year to date, it is now up £6.0 billion on a year earlier – already a little above the £5.7 billion full-year rise implied by our March forecast. Spending growth has picked up to around twice the rate we assume for the full year. But only four months into the year, it is too early to say for certain that the deficit will exceed our March forecast (like-for-like).