Mid-way through 2019-20, borrowing is up £7.2 billion on the same point last year, with strong growth in public spending outweighing more modest growth in receipts. Prospects for full-year borrowing will depend on the extent to which spending growth slows – as seems likely – and whether receipts growth is maintained – which depends in…

Borrowing in 2018-19 was revised up by £15.8 billion this month to £41.4 billion, thanks largely to statistical changes. These include planned improvements to the accounting treatment of student loans and a substantial correction to corporation tax data. The effect of the changes in 2019-20 leaves the deficit on course to exceed our March forecast…

The Chancellor used last week’s Spending Round to announce a significant increase in departmental spending in 2020-21. The OBR’s Budget Responsibility Committee gave evidence to the Treasury Select Committee today on the fiscal implications of the announcement. In addition, Robert Chote has written to the Interim Chair, John Mann, explaining our role during a spending…

Borrowing has risen relative to last year in each of the past four months. For the year to date, it is now up £6.0 billion on a year earlier – already a little above the £5.7 billion full-year rise implied by our March forecast. Spending growth has picked up to around twice the rate we…

Since the publication of our March 2019 Economic and fiscal outlook we have received a request for further detail on the VAT standard rated share of consumer spending. We have published this new supplementary forecast information on the March 2019 EFO page.

Governments are there to manage society’s risks, but also risks to the public finances. Our second Fiscal risks report concludes that perennial issues of abrupt shocks, slower-building pressures and risks taken on by choice are largely as they were two years ago. But Brexit risks loom larger as ‘no deal’ is countenanced at the highest…

In 2017 we produced our first Fiscal risks report (FRR), an assessment of the shocks and pressures that could threaten our forecast for the public finances over the medium term and fiscal sustainability over the longer term. In this, our second report, we revisit and broaden that assessment in light of recent economic and fiscal…

Public sector borrowing was higher than last year, both in May and over the year to date. More materially, a forthcoming improvement in the accounting treatment of student loans will raise the measured deficit by more than £10 billion a year. This is close to our estimate from March, when we thought it would reduce…

Our second Fiscal risks report will be published at 9.30am on Thursday 18 July, two years since our inaugural report on risks to the public finances. Commissioned by Parliament in 2015, the report identifies and analyses risks to the medium term outlook for the public finances and to long-term fiscal sustainability. It covers a wide…

Borrowing fell by just £33 million in April compared with last year, despite a £0.8 billion special dividend received on RBS shares. After the sharp drop in borrowing in 2018-19, we expect a small rise this year due to tax and spending giveaways. The 2018-19 outturn was revised down by £1.1 billion this month and…

Today provides the first provisional outturn estimate for the budget deficit for the full 2018-19 financial year: £24.7 billion, the lowest since 2001-02. Borrowing was £17.2 billion lower than in 2017-18, but £1.8 billion above our March forecast. However, in recent years the initial outturn estimate of the deficit has on average been revised down…

International and UK experts will undertake an independent review of the Office for Budget Responsibility this summer, assessing its performance and adherence to internationally agreed principles of best practice for independent fiscal institutions. Under the legislation that created the OBR, the organisation is required to commission an external review every five years. The OBR’s non-executive…

In accordance with the Welsh Government’s fiscal framework, we will prepare and publish independent forecasts of devolved Welsh tax revenues for the 2019-20 Welsh Government Budget onwards. We have agreed a Memorandum of Understanding, Terms of Reference and a Financial Framework to guide this work. Yn unol â fframwaith cyllidol Llywodraeth Cymru bydd yr OBR yn…

Broad-based growth in tax receipts and lower debt interest spending continued to push the deficit down relative to last year in February. With only one month of 2018-19 to go, borrowing is down almost half relative to the same period in 2017-18 – broadly in line with our recent forecast.

Robert Chote distils the key messages from our latest Economic and fiscal outlook – published today – in his press conference presentation and accompanying speaking note.