Our second Fiscal risks report will be published at 9.30am on Thursday 18 July, two years since our inaugural report on risks to the public finances.

Commissioned by Parliament in 2015, the report identifies and analyses risks to the medium term outlook for the public finances and to long-term fiscal sustainability. It covers a wide range of topics including:

  • Macroeconomic and financial sector risks
  • Specific revenue and spending risks
  • Balance sheet risks

The report pulls together a number of these risks into a fiscal ‘stress test’. This year we will illustrate the fiscal effects of the International Monetary Fund’s ‘No-deal Brexit Scenario A’, which was published in the April 2019 World economic outlook (see Scenario Box 1.1).

The report also includes a new chapter looking at policy risks to the public finances, including the Government’s weakening commitment to its legislated balanced budget objective.

In addition, for the first time, this year’s report looks at how we might analyse possible risks to the public finances from climate change.

The Charter for Budget Responsibility requires the Government to respond to our fiscal risks reports within a year of their publication.

Read our first Fiscal risks report and the Government’s Managing Fiscal Risks.