"It is the duty of the Office to examine and report on the sustainability of the public finances"
20 November 2024
Since the publication of our October 2024 Economic and fiscal outlook (EFO) we have received requests for further information on our carbon price forecast and detail underlying our environmental levies forecast. We will publish this new supplementary forecast information at 11am on 21 November on the October 2024 EFO page.
30 October 2024
Richard Hughes distils the key messages from our latest Economic and fiscal outlook in his press conference presentation and accompanying speaking note.
30 October 2024
Alongside the October 2024 Economic and fiscal outlook we published our Review of the March 2024 departmental expenditure limits (DEL) forecast. We also wrote to the Chair of the Treasury Select Committee with the findings, recommendations and answers to questions received about the review process.
On 25 October, the Shadow Chancellor, Rt. Hon. Jeremy Hunt MP sent an email to Chair Richard Hughes regarding the March 2024 DEL forecast review. Richard Hughes replied on 27 October. Both are available below.
On 29 July 2024 the Chancellor announced that the Budget will be held on Wednesday 30 October and commissioned us to publish our latest outlook for the economy and public finances that day. We have now agreed the timetable for the forecast process and published the detail below. Update on 21 October: Financial market assumptions…
Our latest Forecast evaluation report examines the performance of our March 2023 forecast and scenarios and draws lessons for future exercises. During 2023-24, GDP growth was close to zero and in line with our forecast. Despite rapid falls in energy prices, inflation was still higher than we forecast due to more substantial pass-through of prior…
The proportion of the working-age population in receipt of incapacity benefits reached a post-financial crisis high of 7.0 per cent in 2023-24 and is forecast to continue rising. This Welfare trends report focuses on the operation of the incapacity benefits system since 2010. Only a minority of the rise in incapacity benefits onflows over the…
Since the publication of our March 2024 Economic and fiscal outlook (EFO) we have received a request for further information underlying our environmental levies forecast. We have published this new supplementary forecast information below and on the March 2024 EFO page.
This morning’s ONS release shows that borrowing in the first five months of 2024-25 totalled £64.1 billion.This is £0.3 billion above the same period last year and £6.2 billion above the monthly profile consistent with our March forecast. Higher-than-expected borrowing continues to be driven by departmental spending, particularly consumption expenditure on goods and services which…
Richard Hughes distils the key messages from our latest Fiscal risks and sustainability report in his press conference presentation and accompanying speaking note. Watch back on YouTube here:
Based on current policy and the latest demographic projections, public debt is projected to almost triple from under 100 per cent of GDP to over 270 per cent of GDP over the next 50 years. The estimated damage to the economy and public finances from a changing climate could add between 20 and 30 per…
This discussion paper sets out how public investment is accounted for in our fiscal forecast, before exploring the key transmission mechanisms through which it can affect potential output. It then outlines our proposed approach to modelling the impact of public investment on potential output. We assess the time lags between public investment and its impact…
This morning’s ONS release shows that borrowing in the first four months of 2024-25 totalled £51.4 billion. This is £0.5 billion below the same period last year and £4.7 billion above the monthly profile consistent with our March forecast. The difference with our forecast profile is driven primarily by higher-than-forecast consumption spending by government departments…