Every two years since 2017 the Office for Budget Responsibility produces a report on the fiscal risks facing the UK. We will publish our latest Fiscal risks report (FRR) on Tuesday 6 July.
As previously announced, alongside providing updates on significant developments regarding specific risks highlighted in our previous reports, the 2021 FRR will focus on three major risks to the public finances:
- The first will be the pandemic itself, where we will explore: UK and international experience of this unprecedented economic and fiscal shock; the fiscal support extended by governments during the crisis and the legacy risks that these might pose for the public finances over the medium term; and the potential longer-term implications of the pandemic for the economy and public finances, and the lessons from the pandemic for understanding and managing other catastrophic fiscal risks.
- The second will be climate change, where we will consider the potential economic and fiscal consequences of: unmitigated climate change relative to a world in which the Paris targets for limiting global warming are met; approaches to decarbonising the UK economy; and different scenarios for meeting the Government’s target for net zero emissions from the UK economy by 2050.
- The third will be public debt, where we will look at the historic drivers of debt levels and interest rates; consider potential scenarios for the future path of interest rates; and their implications for long-run fiscal sustainability.
The FRR will be published alongside an updated Risk register incorporating updates on risks discussed in 2017 and 2019, and the addition of the new risks highlighted in the report.