Box sets » Data revisions » Data limitations

Chart 2C: Stacked bar charts showing net migration by nationality and visas granted by type
Latest data from the ONS suggest that net migration to the UK was higher than previously thought in recent years, while it's also projected to be higher than previously expected. In this box, we presented our migration forecast and its impact on labour supply. As there is considerable uncertainty around the outlook, we also considered alternative scenarios for net migration and its economic impact.

Economy categories:
Labour market    Real GDP    Population and migration    participation   

Cross-cutting categories:
Demographics    Data limitations    Uncertainty   

Stacked bar chart showing number of visas granted by category and bar chart showing historical stay rates
Net migration to the UK increased substantially in recent years but the ONS's population projections, that normally underpin our forecast, did not fully account for that rise at the time. In this box, we explored recent trends in migration and outlined our revised near-term migration forecast. We also examined how likely the migrants were to participate in the labour market.

Economy categories:
Labour market    Population and migration    participation   

Cross-cutting categories:
Data limitations   

Our ability to forecast accurately is heavily dependent on the quality of the data we can use. In this box we explained how statistical and expenditure data could be distorted by problems in delivery of the benefit, and the difficulties this creates in identifying emerging trends in the data.

Fiscal categories:
Welfare spending    Incapacity and disability benefits   

Cross-cutting categories:
Forecast process    Data limitations   

There are several possible approaches to forecasting benefit spending. In this box we outlined the key issues the modelling of disability benefits needed to address, the three approaches we used to forecast spending, and the strengths and limitations of each, concluding that a combination of approaches was better than reliance on any single one.

Fiscal categories:
Welfare spending    Incapacity and disability benefits    Tax credits    Carer's allowance   

Cross-cutting categories:
Data limitations    Forecast process