Category Archive: What’s new

We have been commissioned by the Chancellor to produce a forecast for Wednesday 23 November. That day we will release the latest outlook for the economy and public finances.

In little more than two years, the UK economy and public finances have felt the consequences of a global health crisis caused by Covid-19, a global security crisis sparked by Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, and a global energy crisis brought about by both. In a little over a decade, we have also felt the economic…

The public finances have emerged from the pandemic in better shape than expected. But Russia’s invasion of Ukraine will push inflation to a 40-year high of almost 9 per cent, and living standards are set for a historic fall over the next 12 months. The Chancellor used his Spring Statement to deliver rebates and tax…

Richard Hughes distils the key messages from our latest Economic and fiscal outlook in his press conference presentation and accompanying speaking note.

Two years since the start of the pandemic, this Economic and fiscal outlook (EFO) is presented against the backdrop of another unfolding global shock. The Russian invasion of Ukraine is foremost a human tragedy and a reminder of the terrible costs of wars and the immense and immeasurable losses for those caught up in them….

We will publish our latest Economic and fiscal outlook (EFO) on Wednesday 23 March, once the Chancellor has completed his Spring Statement in Parliament. The EFO will present our latest forecast for the economy and public finances, which will include all policy measures announced since our previous forecast in October (including the February energy package)….

January is a big month for tax receipts, with self-assessment (SA) payments due. This year’s relate to 2020-21 liabilities – a year affected by both lockdowns and huge fiscal support. At £26.8 billion, SA receipts exceeded our forecast by £7.8 billion. That helped take the year to date receipts surplus relative to our October 2021…

Since the publication of our October 2021 Economic and fiscal outlook (EFO) we have received a request for further information on the super-deduction costing. We have published this new supplementary forecast information below and on the October 2021 EFO page.

Since the publication of our October 2021 Economic and fiscal outlook (EFO) we have received a request for a further breakdown of the Health and social care levy costing. We have published this new supplementary forecast information below and on the October 2021 EFO page.

Government borrowing in December 2021 was £16.8 billion, down £7.6 billion on December 2020. Year to date borrowing of £146.8 billion is down 46.8 per cent on the same period last year and is £13.0 billion below our October forecast profile. That undershoot reflects stronger than expected receipts (thanks largely to a more resilient labour…