The successful vaccine rollout has allowed the economy to reopen largely on schedule, despite continuing high numbers of coronavirus cases. The vaccines’ high degree of effectiveness, combined with consumers’ and businesses’ surprising degree of adaptability to public health restrictions, has meant that output this year has recovered faster than we expected in March, boosting tax…
Category Archive: What’s new
Budget deficit continues to fall sharply
21 December 2021
Government borrowing in November 2021 was £17.4 billion, down £4.9 billion on last November. Year to date borrowing of £136.0 billion is down 46 per cent on the same period last year and is £7.1 billion below our October forecast profile. That undershoot reflects stronger than expected receipts (thanks largely to a more resilient labour…
Prof. David Miles CBE nominated to join OBR
3 December 2021
The Chancellor of the Exchequer has nominated Prof. David Miles CBE, Imperial College London professor and former Monetary Policy Committee member at the Bank of England, to join the OBR’s Budget Responsibility Committee. If the nomination is approved by the Treasury Select Committee, he would replace Prof. Sir Charlie Bean who finishes his term at…
The Chair’s presentation on our latest economic and fiscal forecast
27 October 2021
Richard Hughes distils the key messages from our latest Economic and fiscal outlook in his press conference presentation and accompanying speaking note.
Overview of the October 2021 Economic and fiscal outlook
27 October 2021
The successful vaccine rollout has allowed the economy to reopen largely on schedule, despite continuing high numbers of coronavirus cases. The vaccines’ high degree of effectiveness, combined with consumers’ and businesses’ surprising degree of adaptability to public health restrictions, has meant that output this year has recovered faster than we expected in March, boosting tax…
Borrowing continues to undershoot forecast
21 September 2021
Government borrowing in August 2021 was £20.5 billion, down £5.5 billion from the same month last year. Year to date borrowing of £93.8 billion is now £31.9 billion below our March forecast profile. That reflects both stronger than expected receipts (thanks largely to a faster than expected economic recovery) and lower than expected spending (due…
Borrowing continues to fall faster than expected
20 August 2021
Government borrowing in July 2021 was £10.4 billion, down £10.1 billion from the same month last year. Year-to-date borrowing of £78.0 billion is now £26.1 billion below our March forecast profile. That reflects both stronger-than-expected receipts (thanks largely to a faster-than-expected economic recovery) and lower-than-expected spending (due to the faster-than-expected unwinding of covid-related government support).
HMT launches search for new Budget Responsibility Committee member
9 August 2021
Last week HMT launched the recruitment campaign to find Professor Sir Charlie Bean’s successor as the economic expert on the Budget Responsibility Committee. The Budget Responsibility Committee (BRC) takes collective responsibility for the analysis and judgements that underpin the work of the office and consists of three executive members. Executive members are appointed by the…
Budget deficit continues to fall faster than expected
21 July 2021
Government borrowing in June 2021 was £22.8 billion, down over 19 per cent from last year. Year-to-date borrowing of £69.5 billion is now £19.0 billion below our March forecast profile. That reflects both stronger-than-expected receipts (consistent with the faster economic rebound in recent months) and lower-than-expected spending (perhaps reflecting continued shortfalls in spending on pandemic-related…
The Chair’s presentation on our third Fiscal risks report
6 July 2021
Richard Hughes distils the key messages from our third Fiscal risks report in his press conference presentation and accompanying speaking note.
Fiscal risks report 2021
6 July 2021
After the second ‘once in a century’ shock in just two decades, our third Fiscal risks report focuses on three large, and potentially catastrophic, sources of fiscal risks. The pandemic could leave £10 billion per year in spending pressures and long-term economic scars. While unmitigated climate change would spell disaster, the net fiscal costs of…