Category Archive: What’s new

Despite rising in August, borrowing in the first five months of 2018-19 was almost a third lower than in the same period last year. On a like-for-like basis receipts growth has so far outpaced our full-year March forecast, while debt interest spending is already down £2.2 billion on last year.

With a £2 billion surplus recorded in July, the deficit in the first four months of 2018-19 is down 40 per cent on a year earlier – a larger fall than implied by our full-year forecast from March. But much of the data remain highly provisional, so it is too soon to draw firm conclusions…

Robert Chote distils the key messages from our latest Fiscal sustainability report – published today – in his press conference presentation and accompanying speaking note.

HM Treasury are legally committed to respond to our Fiscal risks report as outlined in the Charter for Budget Responsibility. On 17 July, the Treasury published their response in Managing Fiscal Risks.

A new working paper looks at alternative ways of accounting for the fiscal implications of student loans and whether alternative treatments can help us to analyse their impact on fiscal sustainability more effectively.

Our latest long-term projections again show that the ageing population and healthcare cost pressures threaten the sustainability of the public finances. The outlook is worse than last year, thanks largely to the Government’s as-yet unfunded announcement of extra health spending last month.

The Treasury Select Committee has approved the appointment of Andy King, currently OBR Chief of Staff, to join the Budget Responsibility Committee.

Borrowing in May was down on last year, although this reflects spending data that are still very provisional. Borrowing for 2017-18 was revised down further, but again full outturns will not be available until at least September.

The Chancellor of the Exchequer has nominated Andy King to join the OBR’s Budget Responsibility Committee (BRC) and Bronwyn Curtis OBE to join the OBR’s oversight board as a non-executive member.

Last year’s budget deficit has been revised £2 billion lower to £40.5 billion, with departments thought to have undershot their spending limits by more than originally estimated. But the figures are still liable to significant further revision.