Category Archive: What’s new

Double-digit growth in tax receipts in January generated a record monthly budget surplus, up sharply relative to last year. Over the first ten months of 2018-19, borrowing is now down almost half relative to the same period in 2017-18 – a slightly larger fall than implied by our latest full-year forecast.

One of the main functions of the welfare system is to support people having difficulty supporting themselves due to ill health or disability. This role stretches back more than a century – at least as far as the National Insurance Act of 1911. The financial support provided by today’s welfare system can be split into…

Continued strength in receipts growth means borrowing over the first eight months of 2018-19 is down almost 30 per cent relative to the same period in 2017-18.

Higher spending growth in October pushed the deficit up relative to last October. But strong receipts growth means borrowing in the first seven months of 2018-19 is still down almost 30 per cent relative to the same period in 2017-18.

Since the publication of our October 2018 Economic and fiscal outlook we have received requests for further detail on the marriage tax allowance and entrepreneurial reliefs. We have published this new supplementary forecast information on the October 2018 EFO page.

At first glance the outlook for the public finances in the medium term looks much the same as it did in March. But this masks a significant improvement in the underlying pace of deficit reduction, that on its own would have put the Government on course to achieve its objective of a balanced budget for…

Strong tax receipts and lower debt interest payments are sustaining a sharp fall in the budget deficit relative to last year. Extrapolating performance over the year to date would see the full-year deficit come in £11 billion lower than forecast in March, however the recent strength of cash corporation tax receipts is not yet being…

The independent European Fiscal Board, created to examine the EU fiscal framework and aggregate policy stance, has reviewed the work of the OBR in its Annual Report. It argues that the OBR has retained “a high degree of public trust in its ability to provide objective assessments of the macroeconomic outlook and public finances”. Read…

Since the referendum we have incorporated Brexit into our forecasts using broad brush assumptions, but as Government policy decisions and developments begin to unfold, we look ahead to the issues we will need to consider when we refine these judgements. In our new paper, we begin to consider how our forecasts might change in this…

The latest in our series of Working Papers were published on 28 September 2018. Working paper No.13: In-year fiscal forecasting and monitoring presents our approach to in-year forecasting and monitoring of the public finances, and discusses how we assess our forecasts against the published data.   Working paper No.14: Devolved income tax: forecasting by tax bands sets…