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Climate change damage
Learn about our analysis on the potential fiscal costs of climate-related damage.
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Forecast evaluation report 2024
Our latest Forecast evaluation report examines the performance of our March 2023 forecast and scenarios and draws lessons for future exercises. During 2023-24, GDP growth was close to zero and in line with our forecast. Despite rapid falls in energy prices, inflation was still higher than we forecast due to more substantial pass-through of prior energy price rises and stronger wage growth. Growth in the number of workers exceeded our expectations too as net migration reached record levels. Our borrowing forecast was slightly higher than outturn due to higher-than-expected tax receipts driven by higher earnings, and less of an increase in public spending.
New forecasts due 30 October
The Economic and fiscal outlook will be published on 30 October alongside the Chancellor’s Budget. Our report will set out forecasts for the economy and public finances over a 5-year horizon.
News
20 September 2024
Departmental spending keeps borrowing above forecast
29 August 2024
Public investment and potential output
21 August 2024
October 2024 forecast timetable
21 August 2024
Year-to-date borrowing remains above forecast
29 July 2024
Autumn 2024 forecast date announced
18 July 2024
The Budget Responsibility Bill
24 May 2024
Third external review of the OBR
22 May 2024
Borrowing in April slightly above forecast
9 May 2024
Monthly profiles for 2024-25
27 February 2024
Welsh taxes outlook – February 2024
Featured
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Long-term health trends
See the highlights of the assumptions driving our long-term projections of health spending.
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Long-term fiscal projections
Get an update on our comprehensive long-term fiscal projections.
Articles
Income tax and the earnings distribution
Amy Nash | 11 July 2024
In this article, we set out how we put the PAYE income tax forecast together in our biannual Economic and fiscal outlooks; how new distributional analysis of earnings informs and improves our forecast; and what our latest forecast assumes about earnings growth across the distribution.
Trends in labour market inactivity for caring purposes
Katya Ring, Holly McCurry, Rosanna Colthorpe and Joshua Rawlings | 11 January 2024
In this article, we examine the reasons for the consistent downwards trend in inactivity for caring purposes coming to an end and what it might imply for our forecast for overall labour force participation.
Dynamic scoring of policy measures in OBR forecasts
Staff of the OBR | 9 November 2023
In this article, we set out how the OBR’s economic and fiscal forecasts capture the dynamic effects of policies on the economic behaviour of people and businesses.
The OBR ready reckoner
Balint Benke and João Sousa | 12 October 2023
Our new ready reckoner allows users to obtain quick, indicative estimates of how changes in the economy affect public finances.
300 years of UK public finance data
Luke Lanskey and Conor O’Loughnan | 20 July 2023
Our new historical public finances database contains 300 years of tax, spending, borrowing and debt data. This article tells the story of government borrowing and debt since 1700 and how the level and composition of tax and spending have evolved over this period.
Key publications
Medium-term forecasts
Five year forecasts for the UK economy and public finances and an assessment of whether the Government is likely to achieve its fiscal targets.
Fiscal risks and long-term projections
Report into the main fiscal risks facing the UK and sustainability of the public finances.
Forecast evaluation
Assessment of how our forecasts compare to outturn data and identifying lessons for future forecasts.
Welfare spending trends
An in-depth look at the drivers of welfare spending both inside and outside the Government’s welfare cap.
Monthly commentary
Our monthly commentary on the latest public finances data and how it compares to our most recent forecast.
Welsh taxes
We are commissioned by the Welsh Government to produce independent forecasts for devolved Welsh taxes.