March 2025
Want a quick summary?
Read the executive summary of the March 2025 Economic and fiscal outlook
|
Chancellor restores headroom amid risky outlook
Against a more challenging and uncertain outlook than in autumn, we have halved our forecast for economic growth this year from 2 to 1 per cent and lowered the forecast path for the level of productivity. Before accounting for policy, higher debt interest costs and other forecast changes left the current budget in deficit by £4 billion in 2029-30. Policy changes, including welfare reforms and day-to-day departmental spending reductions, restore it to the £10 billion surplus the Chancellor had in October. This remains a small margin against the risk of further shocks to interest rates, productivity, or global trade.
Economic and fiscal outlook press briefing: watch again or download the speaking notes and slide.
Featured
March 2025
5 things you should know about our forecast
Richard Hughes, Chair of the OBR, explains the top 5 takeaways from our report.
Video explainer
Working at the OBR
Have you ever wondered what it’s like to work at the OBR? Bronwyn, Imogen, and Harriet share their experiences as analysts and working in communications.
Articles
Key publications
Medium-term forecasts
Five year forecasts for the UK economy and public finances and an assessment of whether the Government is likely to achieve its fiscal targets.
Fiscal risks and long-term projections
Report into the main fiscal risks facing the UK and sustainability of the public finances.
Forecast evaluation
Assessment of how our forecasts compare to outturn data and identifying lessons for future forecasts.
Welfare spending trends
An in-depth look at the drivers of welfare spending both inside and outside the Government’s welfare cap.
Monthly commentary
Our monthly commentary on the latest public finances data and how it compares to our most recent forecast.
Welsh taxes
We are commissioned by the Welsh Government to produce independent forecasts for devolved Welsh taxes.
Papers
Briefing papers
Briefing papers describe our work and explain the material we present.
Working papers
As part of the OBR work programme we will produce working papers on topics which will inform discussion on our forecasts.
Discussion papers
The OBR publishes discussion papers to generate debate around key aspects of its work. Our occasional papers are publications that are not part of a wider set of releases.
