On 16 December 2024 the Chancellor commissioned us to publish our latest outlook for the economy and public finances on Wednesday 26 March.
We have now agreed the timetable for the forecast process and published the detail below.
Update on 12 March:
Financial market assumptions and the incorporation of outturn data
The final pre-measures fiscal forecast closed on 3 March. This included:
- Average interest rates and other market determinants over the ten working days to 12 February;[1]
- Our pre-measures economy forecast that closed on 24 February.
Our forecast also incorporates recent economy and public sector finances outturn data and the 2024 Blue Book revisions to GDP data, which were incorporated into the Quarterly National Accounts published on 30 September 2024 and were too late to be incorporated into our October 2024 forecast. When we present fiscal aggregates relative to GDP in the EFO, we will ‘re-base’ our October 2024 forecast for these Blue Book revisions, in order to make like-for-like comparisons.
The remaining stages of the forecast, that incorporate the direct effect of the Chancellor’s policy announcements and their expected impact on the economy, will be completed on 21 March.