Year-to-date borrowing remains above forecast due to higher-than-expected local authority borrowing

This morning’s ONS release estimates that borrowing in the first nine months of 2024-25 totalled £129.9 billion. This is £4.1 billion above the monthly profile consistent with our October forecast. This upside surprise against profile reflects higher-than-expected borrowing by local authorities and public corporations, with central government borrowing – the largest sector – slightly below profile.