Box sets » Forecast evaluation report - October 2013

Rewriting history: the 1990s recession and recovery
Revisions to National Accounts data are a normal part of the Blue Book process, which reconciles the different measures of GDP and incorporates information from annual data sources. This box explored how the estimated path of the 1990s recession and recovery evolved from estimates made in the 1992 Blue Book to estimates made in the 2013 Blue Book.

Economy categories: Economic data revisions, Real GDP

Cross-cutting categories: Data revisions, Blue Book

How has the story changed since last year?
In our 2012 Forecast Evaluation Report, we noted that nominal GDP had held up closer to our June 2010 forecast than real GDP, helping to explain why our fiscal forecasts out to 2011-12 had remained broadly on track. This box in our 2013 Forecast Evaluation Report discussed how this assessment changed in light of revisions to GDP data. While nominal GDP now appeared to be weaker than forecast, the relatively tax-rich components - such as nominal consumption and wages and salaries - held up relatively well.
To estimate the impact of a measure or package on the economy, we use a set of fiscal multipliers. This box outlines some recent research on the size of multipliers, how the multiplier varies during the economic cycle and how multipliers 'taper' over time.

Economy categories: GDP by expenditure, Government consumption

Fiscal categories: Structural deficit

Cross-cutting categories: Fiscal multipliers

The impact of forestalling on income tax receipts
An additional rate of income tax of 50p for incomes over £150,000 was introduced in April 2010. Budget 2012 announced that this rate would be reduced to 45p from April 2013. This box explored how incomes were shifted (forestalled) in response to these policy changes

Fiscal categories: Income tax, Receipts

Cross-cutting categories: Forestalling