On 29 July 2024 the Chancellor announced that the Budget will be held on Wednesday 30 October and commissioned us to publish our latest outlook for the economy and public finances that day.
We have now agreed the timetable for the forecast process and published the detail below.
Update on 21 October:
Financial market assumptions and the incorporation of outturn data
The final pre-measures fiscal forecast closed on 7 October. This included:
- Average interest rates and other market determinants over the ten working days to 12 September;
- Our pre-measures economy forecast that closed on 26 September.
The remaining stages of the forecast, that incorporate the direct effect of the Chancellor’s policy announcements and their expected impact on the economy, will be completed on 25 October.
EFO and supporting documents
The main document and associated supporting material will be published on our website once the Chancellor’s statement is complete. A full set of detailed forecast tables will also be published alongside the EFO.
The Economic and fiscal outlook will follow a similar structure to previous versions but will now separate the discussion of the fiscal outlook into three chapters on receipts, expenditure, and aggregates. The chapter structure will therefore be:
- Executive summary
- Economic outlook
- Policy measures
- Public sector receipts
- Public sector expenditure
- Fiscal aggregates
- Performance against the Government’s fiscal targets
A. Detailed forecast tables
The findings and recommendations of our review of the March 2024 forecast for Departmental Expenditure Limits will also be published alongside the EFO on 30 October.