Latest government receipts data remains close to forecast

This morning’s ONS release estimates that borrowing in the first two months of 2025-26 totalled £37.7 billion. This is £1.6 billion above the same period last year and £2.9 billion below the monthly profile consistent with our March forecast. Central government spending is £1.6 billion below the forecast profile, though spending data is always highly provisional early in the year. Receipts outturn data in the first two months of the year remains relatively close to the forecast profile, only £0.3 billion lower than expected.