Against a more challenging and uncertain outlook than in autumn, we have halved our forecast for economic growth this year from 2 to 1 per cent and lowered the forecast path for the level of productivity. Before accounting for policy, higher debt interest costs and other forecast changes left the current budget in deficit by £4 billion in 2029-30. Policy changes, including welfare reforms and day-to-day departmental spending reductions, restore it to the £10 billion surplus the Chancellor had in October. This remains a small margin against the risk of further shocks to interest rates, productivity, or global trade.
"It is the duty of the Office to examine and report on the sustainability of the public finances"
