Lower-than-expected January receipts push borrowing further above forecast

This morning’s ONS release estimates that borrowing in the first ten months of 2024-25 totalled £118.2 billion. This is £11.6 billion above the same period last year and £12.8 billion above the monthly profile consistent with our October forecast. The year-to-date shortfall against forecast is driven by lower-than-expected receipts, particularly self-assessed tax receipts and corporation tax, and to a lesser extent by higher borrowing by local authorities. Within central government, this shortfall increased substantially in January compared to last month mainly due to lower-than-expected self-assessed tax receipts and an upward revision to debt interest payments over the year to date.