Fiscal sustainability report – July 2012

Our annual Fiscal sustainability report sets out long-term projections for spending, revenue and financial transactions, and assesses whether they imply a sustainable path for public sector debt. The FSR also analyses the health of the public sector’s balance sheet using both conventional National Accounts measures and the Whole of Government Accounts prepared using commercial accounting principles.

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Fiscal sustainability report – July 2012

July 12, 2012 – 881.70 KB

Supporting documents

Supplementary documents

Information or data which has been released as a result of external requests, since the original publication of the main document.

Presentations

Boxes

Within each of our key publications we include topical ‘boxes’. These self-contained analyses are unique to this publication and tend to cover recent developments in the economy or public finances that complement the main discussion of our analyses.

ONS’s new statistics on UK pension liabilities

ONS’s new statistics on UK pension liabilities
In April 2012, the Office for National Statistics (ONS) published the first set of new statistics on the total gross liabilities of UK pension providers, including the UK government. This box explored how the ONS’ pension liability estimates were calculated for public service pensions and state pensions, and compared the public service estimate to the Whole of Government Accounts (WGA) methodology.

Fiscal categories: Public service pension payments, Public spending, Whole of Government Accounts and National accounts, Welfare spending, State pension

Cross-cutting categories: Experimental statistics, Pensions, Discount rates, Data revisions

Fiscal drag and price uprating

Fiscal drag and price uprating
We updated our 2011 analysis of fiscal drag on income tax and NICs to reflect new data, our latest assumptions and the effect of measures announced over the past year. This box outlined how fiscal drag effects income tax and NICs receipts and the long-term assumptions used.

Fiscal categories: Income tax, Student loans, State pension, Public spending, Receipts, Welfare spending, Financial transactions, National Insurance Contributions

Cross-cutting categories: Fiscal drag and price uprating, Pensions

European Commission estimates of ageing pressures

European Commission estimates of ageing pressures
The European Commission (EC) produces its own analysis of ageing pressures for member states every three years. This box contrasted the forecast made by the EC and the OBR for UK age related spending such as pensions, health care and long-term care.

Fiscal categories: Welfare spending, Health, State pension, Public spending, Departmental spending

Cross-cutting categories: Demographics, External forecasts, Ageing population, Pensions

Sensitivity to age and gender profiles

Sensitivity to age and gender profiles
The National Institute of Economic and Social Research (NIESR) produce generational accounts estimates for the UK. The OBR produces its own long-term projections by using profiles that break down spending by year of age. This box compared the differences in public finance forecasts between the OBR and the NIESR with the latter implying a lower level of net debt by 2061‑62.

Fiscal categories: Public spending, Departmental spending, Health

Cross-cutting categories: External forecasts, Demographics

Generational and National Transfer Accounts

Some researchers argue that the fiscal position is unsustainable if future generations are left to make a larger net contribution to the government’s finances than today’s generation. Generational accounts such as those produced by the National Institute of Economic and Social Research (NIESR) consider intergenerational equity. This box analysed this as a measure of assessing fiscal sustainability.

Fiscal categories: Inter-temporal budget

Cross-cutting categories: Ageing population, Demographics