During the run-up to Budgets and other policy statements, we subject the Government’s draft costings of tax and spending measures to detailed challenge and scrutiny. We then state in the Economic and fiscal outlook and the Treasury’s costing documents whether we endorse the costings that the Government finally publishes as reasonable central estimates. Our approach to the costings process, including the roles of the Treasury and other relevant departments, and how we incorporate the impact of policy measures in our forecasts is described in Briefing Paper No.6: Policy costings and our forecast.

At each fiscal event, we produce an annex in the Economic and fiscal outlook on the announced policy measures and an accompanying uncertainty ratings database where we assign each certified policy costing a subjective uncertainty rating. We also update our database of policy measures since 1970.

Policy measures database

April 1, 2021 – 981 KB
  • October 2021

    All policy costings presented to the Office for Budget Responsibility at Budget and Spending Review 2021 were scrutinised and were certified as reasonable, central estimates were included in our forecasts. The Government’s Budget and Spending Review 2021 policy costings document briefly describes the methodologies underpinning these costings. In our October 2021 Economic and fiscal outlook we have published an assessment on the level of uncertainty associated with each of the certified costings. For those identified as being particularly uncertain, we provided greater detail on the most important sources of uncertainty.

  • March 2021

    All policy costings presented to the Office for Budget Responsibility at Budget 2018 were scrutinised and were certified as reasonable, central estimates were included in our forecasts. The Government’s Budget 2021 policy costings document briefly describes the methodologies underpinning these costings. In our March 2021 Economic and fiscal outlook we have published an assessment on the level of uncertainty associated with each of the certified costings. For those identified as being particularly uncertain, we provided greater detail on the most important sources of uncertainty.

  • November 2020

    All policy costings presented to the Office for Budget Responsibility at Budget 2018 were scrutinised and were certified as reasonable, central estimates were included in our forecasts. The Government’s Spending Review policy costings document briefly describes the methodologies underpinning these costings. In our November 2020 Economic and fiscal outlook we have published an assessment on the level of uncertainty associated with each of the certified costings. For those identified as being particularly uncertain, we provided greater detail on the most important sources of uncertainty.

     

  • March 2020

    All policy costings presented to the Office for Budget Responsibility at Budget 2018 were scrutinised and were certified as reasonable, central estimates were included in our forecasts. The Government’s Budget 2020 policy costings document briefly describes the methodologies underpinning these costings. In our March 2020 Economic and fiscal outlook we have published an assessment on the level of uncertainty associated with each of the certified costings. For those identified as being particularly uncertain, we provided greater detail on the most important sources of uncertainty.

    Read more in Annex A of the Economic and fiscal outlook

  • March 2019

    All policies announced since Budget 2018 were presented to the Office for Budget Responsibility at Spring Statement 2019. They were scrutinised, certified as reasonable, central estimates and were included in our forecasts. In our March 2019 Economic and fiscal outlook we have published an assessment on the level of uncertainty associated with each of the certified costings. For those identified as being particularly uncertain, we provided greater detail on the most important sources of uncertainty.

    Read more in Annex A of the Economic and fiscal outlook

  • October 2018

    All policies presented to the Office for Budget Responsibility at Budget 2018 were included in our forecasts but three could not be certified as reasonable, central estimates. The Government’s Budget 2018 policy costings document briefly describes the methodologies underpinning these costings. In our October 2018 Economic and fiscal outlook we have published an assessment on the level of uncertainty associated with each of the certified costings. For those identified as being particularly uncertain, we provided greater detail on the most important sources of uncertainty.

    Read more in the policy costings document or Annex A of the Economic and fiscal outlook

  • November 2017

    All policy costings presented to the Office for Budget Responsibility at Autumn Budget 2017 were scrutinised and were certified as reasonable, central estimates were included in our forecasts. The Government’s Autumn Budget 2017 policy costings document briefly describes the methodologies underpinning these costings. In our November 2017 Economic and fiscal outlook we have published an assessment on the level of uncertainty associated with each of the certified costings. For those identified as being particularly uncertain, we provided greater detail on the most important sources of uncertainty.

    Read more in the policy costings document or Annex A of the Economic and fiscal outlook

  • March 2017

    All policy costings presented to the Office for Budget Responsibility at Budget 2017 were scrutinised and were certified as reasonable, central estimates were included in our forecasts. The Government’s Budget 2017 policy costings document briefly describes the methodologies underpinning these costings. In our March 2017 Economic and fiscal outlook we have published an assessment on the level of uncertainty associated with each of the certified costings. For those identified as being particularly uncertain, we provided greater detail on the most important sources of uncertainty.

    Read more in the policy costings document or Annex A of the Economic and fiscal outlook

  • November 2016

    All policy costings presented to the Office for Budget Responsibility at Autumn Statement 2016 were scrutinised and were certified as reasonable, central estimates were included in our forecasts. The Government’s Autumn Statement 2016 policy costings document briefly describes the methodologies underpinning these costings. In our November 2016 Economic and fiscal outlook we have published an assessment on the level of uncertainty associated with each of the certified costings. For those identified as being particularly uncertain, we provided greater detail on the most important sources of uncertainty.

    Read more in the policy costings document or Annex A of the Economic and fiscal outlook

  • March 2016

    All policy costings presented to the Office for Budget Responsibility at Budget 2016 were scrutinised and were certified as reasonable, central estimates were included in our forecasts. The Government’s Budget 2016 policy costings document briefly describes the methodologies underpinning these costings. In our March 2016 Economic and fiscal outlook we have published an assessment on the level of uncertainty associated with each of the certified costings. For those identified as being particularly uncertain, we provided greater detail on the most important sources of uncertainty.

    Read more in the policy costings document or Annex A of the Economic and fiscal outlook