Policy costings

During the run-up to Budgets and other policy statements, we subject the Government’s draft costings of tax and spending measures to detailed challenge and scrutiny. We then state in the Economic and fiscal outlook and the Treasury’s costing documents whether we endorse the costings that the Government finally publishes as reasonable central estimates. Our approach to the costings process, including the roles of the Treasury and other relevant departments, and how we incorporate the impact of policy measures in our forecasts is described in Briefing Paper No.6: Policy costings and our forecast. We have also written a small number of working papers on evaluating costings and forestalling.

At each fiscal event, we produce an annex in the Economic and fiscal outlook on the announced policy measures since the previous event and an accompanying uncertainty ratings database where we assign each certified policy costing a subjective uncertainty rating. We also update our database of policy measures since 1970.

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Policy measures database

March 31, 2023 – 3.62 MB
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Policy costings uncertainty ratings database

November 22, 2023 – 229.66 KB

  • March 2023

    All policy costings presented to the Office for Budget Responsibility at Spring Budget 2023 were scrutinised and were certified as reasonable, central estimates and were included in our forecasts. The Government’s Spring Budget 2023 policy costings document briefly describes the methodologies underpinning these costings. In our March 2023 Economic and fiscal outlook we have published an assessment on the level of uncertainty associated with each of the certified costings. For those identified as being particularly uncertain, we provided greater detail on the most important sources of uncertainty.

    Read more in Chapter 3 and Annex B of the Economic and fiscal outlook.

  • March 2022

    All but two policy costings presented to the Office for Budget Responsibility at Spring Statement 2022 were scrutinised and were certified as reasonable, central estimates were included in our forecasts. The Government’s Spring Statement 2022 policy costings document briefly describes the methodologies underpinning these costings. In our March 2022 Economic and fiscal outlook we have published an assessment on the level of uncertainty associated with each of the certified costings. For those identified as being particularly uncertain, we provided greater detail on the most important sources of uncertainty.

    Read more in the policy costings document or Annex A of the Economic and fiscal outlook.

  • October 2021

    All policy costings presented to the Office for Budget Responsibility at Budget and Spending Review 2021 were scrutinised and were certified as reasonable, central estimates were included in our forecasts. The Government’s Budget and Spending Review 2021 policy costings document briefly describes the methodologies underpinning these costings. In our October 2021 Economic and fiscal outlook we have published an assessment on the level of uncertainty associated with each of the certified costings. For those identified as being particularly uncertain, we provided greater detail on the most important sources of uncertainty.

    Read more in the policy costings document or Annex A of the Economic and fiscal outlook.

  • March 2021

    All policy costings presented to the Office for Budget Responsibility at Budget 2021 were scrutinised and were certified as reasonable, central estimates were included in our forecasts. The Government’s Budget 2021 policy costings document briefly describes the methodologies underpinning these costings. In our March 2021 Economic and fiscal outlook we have published an assessment on the level of uncertainty associated with each of the certified costings. For those identified as being particularly uncertain, we provided greater detail on the most important sources of uncertainty.

    Read more in the policy costings document or Annex A of the Economic and fiscal outlook.

  • November 2020

    All policy costings presented to the Office for Budget Responsibility at the Spending Review 2020 were scrutinised and were certified as reasonable, central estimates were included in our forecasts. The Government’s Spending Review policy costings document briefly describes the methodologies underpinning these costings. In our November 2020 Economic and fiscal outlook we have published an assessment on the level of uncertainty associated with each of the certified costings. For those identified as being particularly uncertain, we provided greater detail on the most important sources of uncertainty.

    Read more in the policy costings document or Annex A of the Economic and fiscal outlook.

  • March 2020

    All policy costings presented to the Office for Budget Responsibility at Budget 2020 were scrutinised and were certified as reasonable, central estimates were included in our forecasts. The Government’s Budget 2020 policy costings document briefly describes the methodologies underpinning these costings. In our March 2020 Economic and fiscal outlook we have published an assessment on the level of uncertainty associated with each of the certified costings. For those identified as being particularly uncertain, we provided greater detail on the most important sources of uncertainty.

    Read more in the policy costings document or Annex A of the Economic and fiscal outlook.

  • March 2019

    All policies announced since Budget 2018 were presented to the Office for Budget Responsibility at Spring Statement 2019. They were scrutinised, certified as reasonable, central estimates and were included in our forecasts. In our March 2019 Economic and fiscal outlook we have published an assessment on the level of uncertainty associated with each of the certified costings. For those identified as being particularly uncertain, we provided greater detail on the most important sources of uncertainty.

    Read more in Annex A of the Economic and fiscal outlook. No costings document was published by HM Treasury at this event.

  • October 2018

    All policies presented to the Office for Budget Responsibility at Budget 2018 were included in our forecasts but three could not be certified as reasonable, central estimates. The Government’s Budget 2018 policy costings document briefly describes the methodologies underpinning these costings. In our October 2018 Economic and fiscal outlook we have published an assessment on the level of uncertainty associated with each of the certified costings. For those identified as being particularly uncertain, we provided greater detail on the most important sources of uncertainty.

    Read more in the policy costings document or Annex A of the Economic and fiscal outlook.

  • November 2017

    All policy costings presented to the Office for Budget Responsibility at Autumn Budget 2017 were scrutinised and were certified as reasonable, central estimates were included in our forecasts. The Government’s Autumn Budget 2017 policy costings document briefly describes the methodologies underpinning these costings. In our November 2017 Economic and fiscal outlook we have published an assessment on the level of uncertainty associated with each of the certified costings. For those identified as being particularly uncertain, we provided greater detail on the most important sources of uncertainty.

    Read more in the policy costings document or Annex A of the Economic and fiscal outlook.

  • March 2017

    All policy costings presented to the Office for Budget Responsibility at Budget 2017 were scrutinised and were certified as reasonable, central estimates were included in our forecasts. The Government’s Budget 2017 policy costings document briefly describes the methodologies underpinning these costings. In our March 2017 Economic and fiscal outlook we have published an assessment on the level of uncertainty associated with each of the certified costings. For those identified as being particularly uncertain, we provided greater detail on the most important sources of uncertainty.

    Read more in the policy costings document or Annex A of the Economic and fiscal outlook.