Forecasts in-depth

In preparing and evaluating our forecasts, we consider an enormous amount of information across all aspects of the economy, tax system and public spending. In the pages listed below, we have taken the information available in our documents and elsewhere on our website – supplemented by external sources including the Office for National Statistics, HMRC, DWP and the Institute for Fiscal Studies – and gathered it together for many parts of our forecast, topic by topic.

Featured page

Stamp duty and property tax

Property transaction taxes in the UK are paid by the purchaser when a property is bought. There are currently three such taxes in operation in the UK:

  • Stamp duty land tax (SDLT) – in operation in England and Northern Ireland. SDLT in its current form was introduced across the UK in 2003.
  • Land and buildings transaction tax (LBTT) – in operation in Scotland since April 2015.
  • Land transaction tax (LTT) – in operation in Wales since April 2018.

The public finances

Read detailed information on each area of our fiscal forecast, tax by tax and spend by spend.

Learn about each:

  • outturn data trends
  • our past forecasts and methodology
  • related policy measures
  • OBR and HMRC ready reckoners

The economy

Read detailed information on each area of our economy forecast.

For each aspect of the economy, we detail:

  • what drives our forecasts
  • our methodology
  • our latest forecasts

We also publish the macroeconomic model

Policy costings

Our forecasts include estimates of the effect of new policies announced by the Government. These estimates are known as ‘costings’. We set out how we deal with costings and what we or the Government said about specific policies announced since 2010.

Brexit analysis

Since the announcement of the EU referendum we have been writing analysis on Brexit and its possible impact on the economy and public finances. We have compiled our assumptions, judgements and analysis on this page.

Brief guides and explainers

If you are looking for a simpler introduction to the public finances, welfare spending or the other issues that we cover, these brief guides and explainers are the place to start.

Forecast methodology

Want to learn how we work at forecast time? Or want to delve into detail behind judgements, evolution of fiscal and economic issues or decisions on how we approach and present key topics?