The latest in our series of Working Papers were published on 10 July 2014. Working Paper No.5 – Output gap measurement: judgement and uncertainty uses a range of methods to demonstrate the uncertainty of measuring the output gap and considers the appropriate definition in the context of examining the UK public finances. Working Paper…
Category Archive: What’s new
Robert Chote has written a letter to the Scottish Parliament Finance Committee outlining our long-term projections for UK oil and gas tax revenues.
Kevin Page, former Parliamentary Budget Officer for Canada, has been appointed to lead an external review into the work of the OBR, consistent with the requirements of the legislation underpinning the OBR.
The Charter for Budget Responsibility requires that the OBR provides “independent scrutiny and certification of the Government’s policy costings”. Briefing paper No. 6: Policy costings and our forecast describes how we approach the costings process, including the roles of the Treasury and other relevant departments, and how we incorporate the impact of policy measures in…
Robert Chote has given written and oral evidence to the Treasury Committee on the costing of party policy proposals in the run up to general elections.
Our Autumn Statement forecast was published on 5 December alongside the Autumn Statement. It contains forecasts for the UK economy and public finances to 2018-19 and our assessment of whether the Government is likely to achieve its fiscal mandate and supplementary target. The full document and supporting information is available on the main EFO page.
The Chancellor and Robert Chote have exchanged letters on the role the OBR will take in assessing the Government’s performance against the welfare cap that it intends to introduce at Budget 2014.
Robert Chote and Ed Balls have exchanged letters on the latter’s proposal that the OBR should provide independent scrutiny and certification of political parties’ proposed manifesto commitments on spending and tax.
The economy has recovered much more slowly over the past three years than the OBR expected, but the impact on the public finances has been relatively modest in large part because our over-optimism has been concentrated in those areas of nominal income and spending that are relatively lightly taxed: investment rather than consumer spending and…
The OBR uses a large-scale macroeconomic model to help produce our economic forecast. Briefing paper No. 5: The macroeconomic model sets out a detailed description of the latest version of the model.