"It is the duty of the Office to examine and report on the sustainability of the public finances"
On 16 December 2024 the Chancellor commissioned us to publish our latest outlook for the economy and public finances on Wednesday 26 March. We have now agreed the timetable for the forecast process and published the detail below.
Since the publication of our October 2024 Economic and fiscal outlook (EFO) we have received requests for further information on the costing of changes to agricultural and business property reliefs and capital gains tax measures. We have published this new supplementary forecast information below and on the October 2024 EFO page.
This morning’s ONS release estimates that borrowing in the first nine months of 2024-25 totalled £129.9 billion. This is £4.1 billion above the monthly profile consistent with our October forecast. This upside surprise against profile reflects higher-than-expected borrowing by local authorities and public corporations, with central government borrowing – the largest sector – slightly below…
We explore alternative scenarios for the impact of public investment on economic growth and how they relate to our central forecast in October.
This morning’s ONS release shows that borrowing in the first eight months of 2024-25 totalled £113.2 billion. This is £0.4 billion below the same period last year but £2.0 billion above the monthly profile consistent with our October forecast. This difference reflects upward revisions to borrowing by local authorities and public corporations, which is only…
The Chancellor has announced that the Spring forecast will take place on Wednesday 26 March 2025. Our latest outlook for the economy and public finances will be released on the same day.
In accordance with the fiscal framework agreed by the Welsh and UK Governments, we are formally commissioned by the Welsh Government to produce independent forecasts for devolved Welsh taxes alongside its Draft Budgets. On 10 December we published our forecasts for devolved Welsh taxes in our 2024 Welsh taxes outlook (WTO). The report is available…
Since the publication of our September 2024 Fiscal risks and sustainability (FRS) report, we have received a request for further detail on our long-term fiscal projections. We have published this new supplementary forecast information below and on the September 2024 FRS page.
Since the publication of our October 2024 Economic and fiscal outlook (EFO) we have received requests for further information on our carbon price forecast and detail underlying our environmental levies forecast. We have published this new supplementary forecast information below and on the October 2024 EFO page.
Richard Hughes distils the key messages from our latest Economic and fiscal outlook in his press conference presentation and accompanying speaking note.