"It is the duty of the Office to examine and report on the sustainability of the public finances"
Since the publication of our November 2025 Economic and fiscal outlook (EFO) we have received a request for further detail on our funded pensions forecasts. We have published this new supplementary forecast information below and on the November 2025 EFO page.
This morning’s ONS release estimates that borrowing in the first nine months of 2025-26 totalled £140.4 billion. This is £0.3 billion below the same period last year and £4.1 billion below the monthly profile consistent with our November forecast. Lower than expected borrowing for the year to date is explained by central government net borrowing, which is £2.8…
The Chancellor has commissioned the OBR to produce our next forecast on Tuesday 3 March 2026. We will publish an updated Economic and fiscal outlook on that day.
Richard Hughes has written to the Chancellor of the Exchequer and Chair of the Treasury Select Committee to submit his resignation as Chair of the Office for Budget Responsibility. His letter of resignation is available below.
The OBR inadvertently made it possible to access the November 2025 Economic and fiscal outlook (EFO) too early on Budget day. We launched an immediate investigation into what happened which has reported today, Monday 1 December. The full report is available below.
OBR Chair Richard Hughes has written to both the Chancellor and the Chair of the Commons Treasury Committee apologising for the fact that the OBR inadvertently made it possible to access the November 2025 Economic and fiscal outlook too early on 26 November.
Richard Hughes distils the key messages from our latest Economic and fiscal outlook in his press conference presentation and accompanying speaking note.
Read the executive summary of the November 2025 Economic and fiscal outlook.
In this paper, published alongside the November 2025 Economic and fiscal outlook, we outline our approach to forecasting UK productivity growth. It reviews the UK’s productivity performance from historical and international perspectives as well as the outlook for productivity. The paper also sets out our central forecast and alternative scenarios.
In this paper, published alongside the November 2025 Economic and fiscal outlook, we review our approach to accounting for the supply-side impacts of policy in our forecast. We have taken a more transparent approach to incorporating such effects over the past three years and this paper further adds to that, as recommended in our third…