Category Archive: Fiscal risks and sustainability

An explainer exploring how the fiscal costs of climate-related damage and the transition to net zero could affect the UK’s economy and public finances.

An explainer covering the risks relating to the UK’s public balance sheet.

An explainer exploring three key risks to the public finances from the pension system – rising costs, private saving adequacy and falling demand for gilts.

Richard Hughes distils the key messages from our latest Fiscal risks and sustainability report in his press conference presentation and accompanying speaking note. Watch back on YouTube here:

Efforts to put the UK’s public finances on a sustainable footing after a series of global shocks have met with only limited and temporary success in recent years, leaving the UK with the sixth-highest debt, fifth-highest deficit, and third-highest borrowing costs among 36 advanced economies. Against this more vulnerable backdrop, the risks to the fiscal…

Our latest report on Fiscal risks and sustainability (FRS) will be published on Tuesday 8 July. It will be launched at a press conference in Liverpool. The 2025 FRS report will focus on three current pressures on the public finances and provide an update on the risk register: Climate change, where we will update our estimates of…

We have released additional information on the methodology and assumptions underlying our migration analysis in our 2024 Fiscal risks and sustainability report (FRS). We have published this new supplementary forecast information below and on the September 2024 FRS page.

Since the publication of our September 2024 Fiscal risks and sustainability (FRS) report, we have received a request for further detail on our long-term fiscal projections. We have published this new supplementary forecast information below and on the September 2024 FRS page.

Richard Hughes distils the key messages from our latest Fiscal risks and sustainability report in his press conference presentation and accompanying speaking note. Watch back on YouTube here:

Based on current policy and the latest demographic projections, public debt is projected to almost triple from under 100 per cent of GDP to over 270 per cent of GDP over the next 50 years. The estimated damage to the economy and public finances from a changing climate could add between 20 and 30 per…