Overall, the economic and fiscal outlook is similar to November. While growth has slightly disappointed since then, a steeper fall in inflation and interest rates should support a stronger recovery. Against this backdrop, the Budget announces another 2p cut in national insurance, the cost of which is partly recouped through other tax rises. Public services spending is largely unchanged and no longer grows in real per person terms. These plans allow the Chancellor to meet his aim for debt to fall as a share of GDP with £9 billion to spare – a tiny fraction of the risks around any forecast.
