The aftermath of the pandemic was characterised by a stronger-than-expected recovery in demand. But this bumped up against domestic and international supply constraints, which were compounded by the Russian invasion of Ukraine leading to a sharp rise in inflation. In this year’s Forecast evaluation report, we consider the accuracy of our forecast for the economic…

Our Forecast evaluation report will be published today at 11am. This annual report compares our forecasts against subsequent outturn data and will identify lessons for future forecasts.

Borrowing in the first nine months of 2022-23 was £128.1 billion, up £5.1 billion on last year but £2.7 billion below our November forecast profile in the headline figures and £11.3 billion below profile on a like-for-like basis (correcting for a temporary difference in student loans figures in our forecast profile versus ONS outturn). This…

On 19 December the Chancellor announced that the Spring Budget 2023 will be held on Wednesday 15 March and commissioned us to publish our latest outlook for the economy and public finances that day. We have now agreed the timetable for the forecast process and published the detail below.

Our latest Forecast evaluation report (FER) will be published at 11am on Tuesday 31 January. Our FER examines how our forecasts compare to subsequent outturn data and identifies lessons for future forecasts. This report will focus on how our March 2022 and November 2022 economy and fiscal forecasts for 2021-22 fared against the outturns.

Borrowing in November was £22.0 billion, the highest November figure since monthly records began, largely thanks to a sharp rise in public spending due to the cost of energy and cost-of-living support schemes introduced this year. Borrowing in the first eight months of 2022-23 was £7.8 billion below our November forecast profile published today, largely…

We have published updated monthly profiles for receipts, spending and borrowing in 2022-23 consistent with our November 2022 Economic and fiscal outlook below and alongside our monthly commentary on the public finances.

The Chancellor has announced that the Spring Budget 2023 will take place on Wednesday 15 March. That day we will release the latest outlook for the economy and public finances.

Since the publication of our November 2022 Economic and fiscal outlook (EFO) we have received a request for further information into our forecast of income streams subject to self-assessment income tax. We have published this new supplementary forecast information below and on the November 2022 EFO page.

Since the publication of our November 2022 Economic and fiscal outlook (EFO) we have received a request for further information on our income tax and National Insurance contributions forecast. We have published this new supplementary forecast information below and on the November 2022 EFO page.

Since the publication of our November 2022 Economic and fiscal outlook (EFO) we have received a request for further information on our Ofgem price cap forecast. We have published this new supplementary forecast information below and on the November 2022 EFO page.

Since the publication of our November 2022 Economic and fiscal outlook (EFO) we have received a request for further information on our emissions trading scheme receipts forecast. We have published this new supplementary forecast information below and on the November 2022 EFO page.

On 18 November, the Chair of the Economic Affairs Committee, Lord Bridges of Headley MBE sent a letter to Chair Richard Hughes regarding the OBR’s welfare spending forecasts. Richard Hughes replied with further information on 25 November. Both letters are available below.  

Since the publication of our November 2022 Economic and fiscal outlook (EFO) we have received a request for further information on our welfare spending forecast. We have published this new supplementary forecast information below and on the November 2022 EFO page.

Government borrowing in October 2022 was £13.5 billion, £4.4 billion higher than last year – thanks to the first payments from two energy support schemes for households. But year-to-date borrowing of £84.4 billion is down £21.7 billion (20.5 per cent) on last year – thanks to stronger tax receipts and no spending on Covid schemes,…