The UK economy has slowed this year as households’ real incomes and spending have been squeezed by higher inflation. GDP growth has been a little weaker than we expected in March, but once again we have been more surprised by the strength of employment growth and the corresponding weakness of productivity growth. The persistence of…

The ONS has reclassified English housing associations to the private sector with effect from today. Our November 2017 forecast will reflect this reclassification.

Since the publication of our March 2017 Economic and fiscal outlook we have received a request for further detail underlying our business rates forecast. We have published this new supplementary forecast information on the March 2017 EFO page.

Halfway through 2017-18, borrowing is £2.5 billion down on the same period in 2016-17. While this suggests we will need to revise down full-year borrowing in our November forecast, it remains likely that the deficit will rise relative to 2016-17. Self-assessment income tax receipts in January and February are expected to fall year-on-year.

Robert Chote distils the key messages from our latest Forecast evaluation report – published today – in his press conference presentation and accompanying speaking note.

The OBR is likely to revise down potential productivity growth in its November forecast, weakening the outlook for the public finances. This would be partially offset by lower equilibrium unemployment, more hours worked and downward revisions to borrowing last year.

We have decided to push back the publication of our 2017 Welfare trends report from 10 October to later in the financial year. The report will focus on the forecasting of Universal credit ahead of next year’s planned surge in the number of UC recipients.

Government borrowing was £0.2 billion lower than last year over the first five months of 2017-18. Our March forecast predicted a rise in borrowing for 2017-18 as a whole, with self-assessment income tax paid in the second half of the year expected to fall relative to 2016-17.

Official figures this week showed a big jump in government debt interest spending. Read our paper on the debt interest outlook and risks. This paper is a slightly modified standalone version of Chapter 8 of our July 2017 Fiscal risks report.

Since the publication of our March 2016 Economic and fiscal outlook we have received a request for further detail underlying our stamp duty land tax (SDLT) forecast. We have published this new supplementary forecast information on the March 2016 EFO page.

The budget deficit in June was around £2 billion up on last year and £2 billion higher than market expectations, reflecting strong growth in departmental spending, debt interest payments and contributions to the EU. Read more

Robert Chote distils the key messages from our inaugural Fiscal risks report in his press conference presentation and accompanying speaking note.

Confronted by a vulnerable fiscal position and a challenging political environment, the Government will need to review the fiscal risks that it has exposed itself to for policy reasons, to prepare for the cost of unexpected shocks and to address some long-term pressures on receipts and spending. And to do so while managing the uncertainties…

The Office for Budget Responsibility has produced regular medium-term forecasts and long-term projections for the UK public finances since 2010. We have always emphasised the uncertainty that lies around them and have quantified it in various ways. Parliament has now asked us to build on this work by producing a regular report on ‘fiscal risks’….

The Chancellor has approved the appointment of Sir Christopher Kelly as a non-executive member of the OBR. Sir Christopher will succeed Dame Kate Barker on the oversight board, which holds responsibility for managing risks and safeguarding the independence of the OBR.