January tax receipts and debt interest far exceed forecasts

January is a big month for tax receipts, with self-assessment (SA) payments due. This year’s relate to 2020-21 liabilities – a year affected by both lockdowns and huge fiscal support. At £26.8 billion, SA receipts exceeded our forecast by £7.8 billion. That helped take the year to date receipts surplus relative to our October 2021 forecast to £29.1 billion. But higher inflation has raised debt interest costs too, helping to push year to date spending £8.8 billion above profile. Year to date borrowing of £138.5 billion is £17.8 billion below our October forecast, while the central government net cash requirement is a much larger £56.4 billion below.