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We expect average GDP growth of 1½ per cent over the next five years, 0.3 percentage points slower than in March. Lower GDP growth coupled with higher forecast inflation, wages, receipts, and spending results in a modest deterioration in the pre-measures fiscal position, with borrowing £6 billion higher and the current surplus reduced to £4…

This morning’s ONS release estimates that borrowing in the first six months of 2025-26 totalled £99.8 billion. This is £11.5 billion above the same period last year and £7.2 billion above the monthly profile consistent with our March forecast. Revised estimates of tax receipts for the year-to-date have reduced the estimated borrowing overshoot compared to…

The latest public finances data were published by the ONS and HM Treasury today at 7am. Our regular monthly commentary on the release will be published here later today.

Our latest Economic and fiscal outlook will be published today alongside the Chancellor’s Autumn Budget. It will set out forecasts for the economy and the public finances, and an assessment of whether the Government is likely to achieve its fiscal targets.

We will publish our latest Economic and fiscal outlook (EFO) later today once the Chancellor has completed his Spring Budget statement in Parliament. The EFO will present our latest forecast for the economy and public finances, which will include all policy measures announced since our last forecast in November.

The economy has proved more resilient to the shocks of the pandemic and energy crisis than we anticipated. But inflation has also been more persistent and interest rates higher than in March. Higher inflation boosts tax revenues but also welfare benefits while higher interest rates push up debt servicing. But because departmental spending is left…

Post-pandemic supply bottlenecks, the subsequent energy crisis sparked by Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, and the fiscal and monetary policy response to both drove significant differences between our forecasts and outturn for financial year 2022-23. Inflation proved stronger and more persistent than expected in our pre-invasion March 2021 and March 2022 forecasts published in the immediate…

Our latest Forecast evaluation report (FER) will be published at 11am on Thursday 19 October. Our FER examines how our forecasts compare to subsequent outturn data and identifies lessons for future forecasts. This report will focus on how our March 2021 and March 2022 economy and fiscal forecasts for 2022-23 fared against the outturns.

We will publish our latest outlook for the economy and public finances alongside the Chancellor’s Autumn Statement on Thursday 17 November. Earlier this month we published a timetable for the 31 October forecast process. We have now published a revised timetable.

Our 2022 Fiscal risks and sustainability report will be published at 9.30am on Thursday 7 July Our new combined FRS report will focus on 3 major risks to the public finances: rising geopolitical tensions, higher energy prices and an ageing population.