How have our forecasts fared since the referendum? The economy has slowed much as we predicted, but there were surprises in the timing and composition of the slowdown. Meanwhile the public finances have done better than expected, but for reasons that have little to do with our judgements regarding the impact of the vote.
Our 2018 Forecast evaluation report (FER) will be published today at 11am. It will examine how our forecasts compare to subsequent outturn data and identify lessons for future forecasts.
Buoyant tax receipts and an improved outlook for employment have delivered the Government a significant fiscal windfall since March, sufficient to deliver its objective of a balanced budget by 2025. But this had already been swallowed up by the Prime Minister’s promise of more money for the NHS in June, to which the Chancellor has…
The Treasury Select Committee has approved the appointment of Andy King, currently OBR Chief of Staff, to join the Budget Responsibility Committee.
The Chancellor has nominated Andy King, currently the OBR’s Chief of Staff, to replace Graham Parker on the Budget Responsibility Committee and appointed Bronwyn Curtis as a non-executive member of the OBR. Appointments to the BRC are subject to confirmation by the Treasury Select Committee.
Our latest Economic and fiscal outlook will be published today once the Chancellor has finished his speech. It will set out forecasts for the economy and the public finances, and an assessment of whether the Government is likely to achieve its fiscal targets.
We have revised down our productivity and GDP forecasts and, despite lower borrowing this year, revised up our forecast for the budget deficit. The Chancellor has raised the deficit further with higher public spending and a net tax giveaway.