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The Forecast evaluation report, our annual report on the accuracy of our forecasts, will compare how our final pre-referendum and first post-referendum forecasts fare against what happened after the Brexit vote. Our annual Welfare trends report, which examines the drivers of welfare spending, will focus in on the Summer Budget 2015 welfare spending cuts. We will publish the two reports…

We have restated our March 2019 borrowing forecast to include recent ONS statistical changes but have not incorporated any other new data, new judgements nor include an update to the economy forecast. After incorporating these changes, borrowing has increased materially by around £20bn each year.   We wrote to the Treasury on 29 October about our…

Following the cancellation of the Budget, we have decided to publish a restated version of our March public finance forecast, incorporating subsequent ONS classification and other statistical changes. Given the importance of these changes for public understanding of the baseline against which the Government will wish to judge its fiscal policy options, we believe that…

The Chancellor has announced that he is planning to hold a Budget on 6 November, unless the UK leaves the EU without a deal – in which case it will be delayed. With the Government designing the Budget policy package for a deal, we will produce our accompanying economic and fiscal forecast on a consistent…

Our second Fiscal risks report will be published at 9.30am today, two years since our inaugural report on risks to the public finances. Watch the live stream of our press conference on our YouTube channel.  

Our latest Economic and fiscal outlook will be published today once the Chancellor has finished his speech. It will set out forecasts for the economy and the public finances, and an assessment of whether the Government is likely to achieve its fiscal targets.

Disability benefits spending has risen faster than anticipated despite reform aimed to reduce it. The transition to PIP was intended to save 20 per cent relative to DLA remaining in place, but appears to have cost around 15 to 20 per cent more.

How have our forecasts fared since the referendum? The economy has slowed much as we predicted, but there were surprises in the timing and composition of the slowdown. Meanwhile the public finances have done better than expected, but for reasons that have little to do with our judgements regarding the impact of the vote.

Our 2018 Forecast evaluation report (FER) will be published today at 11am. It will examine how our forecasts compare to subsequent outturn data and identify lessons for future forecasts.  

Buoyant tax receipts and an improved outlook for employment have delivered the Government a significant fiscal windfall since March, sufficient to deliver its objective of a balanced budget by 2025. But this had already been swallowed up by the Prime Minister’s promise of more money for the NHS in June, to which the Chancellor has…