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Public debt projected to exceed 270 per cent of GDP by the mid-2070s

Based on current policy and the latest demographic projections, public debt is projected to almost triple from under 100 per cent of GDP to over 270 per cent of GDP over the next 50 years. The estimated damage to the economy and public finances from a changing climate could add between 20 and 30 per…

Line chart showing cumulative public sector net borrowing

Year-to-date borrowing remains above forecast

This morning’s ONS release shows that borrowing in the first four months of 2024-25 totalled £51.4 billion. This is £0.5 billion below the same period last year and £4.7 billion above the monthly profile consistent with our March forecast. The difference with our forecast profile is driven primarily by higher-than-forecast consumption spending by government departments…

Red box and EFO

Our upcoming March 2024 Economic and fiscal outlook

We will publish our latest Economic and fiscal outlook (EFO) later today once the Chancellor has completed his Spring Budget statement in Parliament. The EFO will present our latest forecast for the economy and public finances, which will include all policy measures announced since our last forecast in November.

Chancellor spends £27 billion windfall on personal and business tax cuts

The economy has proved more resilient to the shocks of the pandemic and energy crisis than we anticipated. But inflation has also been more persistent and interest rates higher than in March. Higher inflation boosts tax revenues but also welfare benefits while higher interest rates push up debt servicing. But because departmental spending is left…

OBR Forecast evaluation report cover icon

Forecast evaluation report – October 2023

Post-pandemic supply bottlenecks, the subsequent energy crisis sparked by Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, and the fiscal and monetary policy response to both drove significant differences between our forecasts and outturn for financial year 2022-23. Inflation proved stronger and more persistent than expected in our pre-invasion March 2021 and March 2022 forecasts published in the immediate…

Annual report on forecast accuracy due on 19 October

Forecast evaluation report – October 2023

Our latest Forecast evaluation report (FER) will be published at 11am on Thursday 19 October. Our FER examines how our forecasts compare to subsequent outturn data and identifies lessons for future forecasts. This report will focus on how our March 2021 and March 2022 economy and fiscal forecasts for 2022-23 fared against the outturns.

Economic and fiscal outlook due 17 November 2022

New forecasts due on 17 November

We will publish our latest outlook for the economy and public finances alongside the Chancellor’s Autumn Statement on Thursday 17 November. Earlier this month we published a timetable for the 31 October forecast process. We have now published a revised timetable.

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Fiscal risks and sustainability 2022 due Thursday

Our 2022 Fiscal risks and sustainability report will be published at 9.30am on Thursday 7 July Our new combined FRS report will focus on 3 major risks to the public finances: rising geopolitical tensions, higher energy prices and an ageing population.

Welfare trends report due 24 May

Publication of the Welfare trends report

Our 2022 Welfare trends report will be published this morning at 11am. It will explore the implications of the pandemic-induced recession for non-pensioner welfare spending by comparing it to the previous three recessions in the UK.