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Strong receipts keep borrowing below profile

Borrowing in the first five months of 2023-24 totalled £69.6 billion, £19.3 billion above the same period last year but £11.3 billion below the monthly profile consistent with our March forecast. The downside surprise is more than explained by higher central government receipts (£12.6 billion above profile), reflecting stronger nominal tax bases. This was partly…

Economic and fiscal outlook due 17 November 2022

New forecasts due on 17 November

We will publish our latest outlook for the economy and public finances alongside the Chancellor’s Autumn Statement on Thursday 17 November. Earlier this month we published a timetable for the 31 October forecast process. We have now published a revised timetable.

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Fiscal risks and sustainability 2022 due Thursday

Our 2022 Fiscal risks and sustainability report will be published at 9.30am on Thursday 7 July Our new combined FRS report will focus on 3 major risks to the public finances: rising geopolitical tensions, higher energy prices and an ageing population.

Welfare trends report due 24 May

Publication of the Welfare trends report

Our 2022 Welfare trends report will be published this morning at 11am. It will explore the implications of the pandemic-induced recession for non-pensioner welfare spending by comparing it to the previous three recessions in the UK.

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March 2022 Economic and fiscal outlook

Our latest Economic and fiscal outlook will be published today alongside the Chancellor’s Spring Statement. It will set out forecasts for the economy and the public finances, and an assessment of whether the Government is likely to achieve its fiscal targets.

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Forecast evaluation report – December 2021

Our annual FER examines how our forecasts compare to subsequent outturn data and identifies lessons for future forecasts. The pandemic brought about the largest shock to the economy and public finances since the OBR was established. This report will look at its impact on our forecasts over 2020-21, and what we can learn for future…

Budget extends rescue measures, stokes economic recovery, and begins fiscal repair job

The economy is set to rebound thanks to rapid vaccine rollout, getting back to its pre-pandemic peak by the middle of next year. Extending rescue measures takes support for households, businesses, and public services to £344 billion. Generous tax incentives for business investment stoke the recovery over the next two years. Then medium-term tax rises…

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March 2021 Economic and fiscal outlook

We will publish our latest set of forecasts for the economy and public finances alongside the Chancellor’s Budget on Wednesday 3 March. The Economic and fiscal outlook will be published here immediately after the Chancellor’s speech.

Cumulative public sector net borrowing

Sharp rise in budget deficit is slower than expected

Government borrowing continued to rise in January, with monthly borrowing of £8.8 billion, despite a better-than-expected £24 billion of tax payments being made through self-assessment. Year-to-date borrowing has reached £271 billion, far exceeding the pre-virus annual record set at the height of the financial crisis in 2009-10 (£158 billion). We will publish our latest estimate…

Real GDP outtruns and forecasts

Forecast evaluation report 2021

Next year’s Forecast evaluation report will look back at what will probably be the largest official economic forecast errors ever, reflecting the full effect of the coronavirus pandemic on the economy and public finances in 2020-21. In this year’s brief report, we look back at our March 2018 and March 2019 forecasts for 2019-20. Both…