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11 June 2015

Fiscal sustainability report – June 2015

Our annual Fiscal sustainability report sets out long-term projections for spending, revenue and financial transactions, and assesses whether they imply a sustainable path for public sector debt. The FSR also analyses the health of the public sector’s balance sheet using both conventional National Accounts measures and the Whole of Government Accounts prepared using commercial accounting principles.

pdf

Fiscal sustainability report - June 2015

June 11, 2015 – 2 MB

Supporting documents

  • pdf

    Fiscal sustainability and Welfare trends reports – press notice June 2015

    June 11, 2015 – 100 KB
  • xls

    Fiscal sustainability report charts and tables - June 2015

    June 11, 2015 – 2 MB
  • xlsx

    Fiscal sustainability report supplementary data series - June 2015

    June 11, 2015 – 877 KB
  • pdf

    Fiscal sustainability report - executive summary June 2015

    June 11, 2015 – 89 KB
  • xlsx

    Fiscal sustainability report - data sources June 2015

    June 19, 2015 – 633 KB

Supplementary documents

Information or data which has been released as a result of external requests, since the original publication of the main document.

  • xls

    Financial transactions and other non-PSNB effects on PSND - Fiscal sustainability report 2015

    December 22, 2015 – 156 KB
  • xls

    Labour market participation rates by age and gender - Fiscal sustainability report 2015

    November 5, 2015 – 366 KB
  • pdf

    Employment rate projections - Fiscal sustainability report 2015

    June 12, 2015 – 54 KB

Presentations

  • pdf

    Fiscal sustainability report/Welfare trends report – presentation slides – June 2015

    June 11, 2015 – 299 KB
  • pdf

    Fiscal sustainability report/Welfare trends report – speaking notes – June 2015

    June 11, 2015 – 155 KB

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Boxes

Within each of our key publications we include topical ‘boxes’. These self-contained analyses are unique to this publication and tend to cover recent developments in the economy or public finances that complement the main discussion of our analyses.

Fiscal sustainability report - June 2015 | Box: 3.1 | Page: 74

Age-related spending projections in Europe

Age-related spending projections in Europe
Our 2015 long-term fiscal projections suggested that, if left unaddressed, the public sector finances would have come under increasing pressure over the next 50 years due to rising age-related expenditure. This box compared our long-term age related spending projections with projections from the Ageing Working Group (2015) for the EU countries between 2020 and 2060.

Economy categories: Labour market, Population and migration

Fiscal categories: Public spending, Education, Departmental spending, Health

Cross-cutting categories: Ageing population, Demographics, International comparisons

Fiscal sustainability report - June 2015 | Box: 3.2 | Page: 90

Economic cycles and the long-term projections

Economic cycles and the long-term projections
In our 2015 Fiscal sustainability report, we assumed that GDP grows in line with its historical trend. This in effect implied 47 years of uninterrupted trend economic growth in our central projections. This box considered the alternative paths for debt as a share of GDP under an symmetric and asymmetric cycle, highlighting the sensitivity of the net debt projections to economic cycles.

Economy categories: Output gap, Nominal GDP

Fiscal categories: Primary balance, Public sector net debt

Fiscal sustainability report - June 2015 | Box: 3.3 | Page: 95

Drivers of rising health spending

Drivers of rising health spending
Health spending rose faster than GDP in almost all European countries over the past decade. This box investigated most notable long-term drivers of real spending on health care: demographic effects, income effects and other cost pressures.

Economy categories: GDP by income, Population and migration, Labour market, Productivity

Fiscal categories: Health, Public spending, Departmental spending

Cross-cutting categories: Ageing population, Demographics, International comparisons

Fiscal sustainability report – July 2014
Fiscal sustainability analytical papers – 2016

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