"It is the duty of the Office to examine and report on the sustainability of the public finances"
The deficit is likely to be significantly lower this year than we anticipated in November, largely reflecting one-off factors and timing effects. Borrowing is now forecast to rise temporarily in 2017-18 – to roughly the level we forecast in November – before returning to a downward trajectory. The Chancellor remains on course to meet his…
Since the publication of our November 2016 Economic and fiscal outlook we have received a request for further detail underlying the alternative productivity scenarios. We have published this new supplementary forecast information on the November 2016 EFO page of our website.
The ONS have announced that the publication of the second estimate of Q4 2016 GDP and associated data will brought forward one day, to 22 February 2017, in response to a request from the OBR.
As part of our ongoing goal to increase the transparency and accessibility of information, we have launched a new area of our website: Forecasts in-depth. Over time, we will collate and publish a wealth of material to this new area on each part of our economic and fiscal forecasts.
Since the publication of our November 2016 Economic and fiscal outlook we have received a request to publish the receipts and spending breakdowns of the alternative decomposition of changes in borrowing and a breakdown of changes in the oil and gas revenues forecast. We have published this new supplementary forecast information on the main EFO…
Since the publication of our November 2016 Devolved taxes we have received a request to publish further detail of our forecasts. We have published this new supplementary forecast information on the main EFO page of our website.
Robert Chote distils the key messages from our latest Economic and fiscal outlook – published today – in his press conference presentation and accompanying speaking note.
The Government is no longer on course to balance the budget during the current Parliament and has formally dropped this ambition in a significant loosening of its fiscal targets. Public sector net borrowing is now expected to fall more slowly than we forecast in March, primarily reflecting weak tax receipts so far this year and…
The Chancellor has relaxed his fiscal targets to make space for a modest infrastructure spending giveaway over the next five years. A weaker outlook for the economy and tax revenues – and these new spending commitments – mean that the budget is no longer expected to return to surplus in this Parliament, with a £21…
Pre-announced tax changes encourage house buyers to bring forward purchases, costing Government tax revenue. Download Working paper No.10: Forestalling ahead of property tax changes