"It is the duty of the Office to examine and report on the sustainability of the public finances"
The Office for Budget Responsibility has produced regular medium-term forecasts and long-term projections for the UK public finances since 2010. We have always emphasised the uncertainty that lies around them and have quantified it in various ways. Parliament has now asked us to build on this work by producing a regular report on ‘fiscal risks’….
The Chancellor has approved the appointment of Sir Christopher Kelly as a non-executive member of the OBR. Sir Christopher will succeed Dame Kate Barker on the oversight board, which holds responsibility for managing risks and safeguarding the independence of the OBR.
Robert Chote distils the key messages from our latest Economic and fiscal outlook – published today – in his press conference presentation and accompanying speaking note.
Public sector net borrowing is likely to be significantly lower this year than we anticipated at the time of the Autumn Statement in November, largely reflecting one-off factors and timing effects that flatter the figures at the expense of next year. So much so, in fact, that borrowing is now forecast to rise in 2017-18…
The deficit is likely to be significantly lower this year than we anticipated in November, largely reflecting one-off factors and timing effects. Borrowing is now forecast to rise temporarily in 2017-18 – to roughly the level we forecast in November – before returning to a downward trajectory. The Chancellor remains on course to meet his…
Since the publication of our November 2016 Economic and fiscal outlook we have received a request for further detail underlying the alternative productivity scenarios. We have published this new supplementary forecast information on the November 2016 EFO page of our website.
The ONS have announced that the publication of the second estimate of Q4 2016 GDP and associated data will brought forward one day, to 22 February 2017, in response to a request from the OBR.
As part of our ongoing goal to increase the transparency and accessibility of information, we have launched a new area of our website: Forecasts in-depth. Over time, we will collate and publish a wealth of material to this new area on each part of our economic and fiscal forecasts.
Since the publication of our November 2016 Economic and fiscal outlook we have received a request to publish the receipts and spending breakdowns of the alternative decomposition of changes in borrowing and a breakdown of changes in the oil and gas revenues forecast. We have published this new supplementary forecast information on the main EFO…