"It is the duty of the Office to examine and report on the sustainability of the public finances"
Our 2025 Forecast evaluation report marks a shift from previous reports, providing an updated assessment of our forecast performance over the past 15 years, an in-depth evaluation of successive forecasts made for fiscal year 2023-24, and a set of lessons learnt for our future economy and fiscal forecasts. In doing so, the report evaluates the…
Our latest Forecast evaluation report (FER) will be published on Tuesday 1 July. Our FER examines how our forecasts compare to subsequent outturn data and identifies lessons for future forecasts. This report will focus on the performance of our March 2019, March 2022, and March 2023 Economic and fiscal outlook (EFO) for the fiscal year…
Our latest Forecast evaluation report examines the performance of our March 2023 forecast and scenarios and draws lessons for future exercises. During 2023-24, GDP growth was close to zero and in line with our forecast. Despite rapid falls in energy prices, inflation was still higher than we forecast due to more substantial pass-through of prior…
Our 2024 Welfare trends report (WTR) will be published on Thursday 10 October. This biennial report will examine the drivers of spending on incapacity benefits over the last 50 years. Alongside this, we will also publish our 2024 Forecast evaluation report (FER) on Thursday 10 October. We will focus on our March 2023 forecast and…
This has been postponed in light of the announcement of a General Election on Thursday 4 July. Our 2024 Welfare trends report (WTR) will be published on 2 July. This biennial report will examine the drivers of spending on incapacity benefits. It will be released alongside the upcoming Fiscal risks and sustainability report. On 18…
Post-pandemic supply bottlenecks, the subsequent energy crisis sparked by Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, and the fiscal and monetary policy response to both drove significant differences between our forecasts and outturn for financial year 2022-23. Inflation proved stronger and more persistent than expected in our pre-invasion March 2021 and March 2022 forecasts published in the immediate…
Our latest Forecast evaluation report (FER) will be published at 11am on Thursday 19 October. Our FER examines how our forecasts compare to subsequent outturn data and identifies lessons for future forecasts. This report will focus on how our March 2021 and March 2022 economy and fiscal forecasts for 2022-23 fared against the outturns.
Our Forecast evaluation report will be published today at 11am. This annual report compares our forecasts against subsequent outturn data and will identify lessons for future forecasts.
Our latest Forecast evaluation report (FER) will be published at 11am on Tuesday 31 January. Our FER examines how our forecasts compare to subsequent outturn data and identifies lessons for future forecasts. This report will focus on how our March 2022 and November 2022 economy and fiscal forecasts for 2021-22 fared against the outturns.
The pandemic delivered one of the largest peacetime shocks to the UK economy in history last year. And that resulted in the largest forecast errors on record. But, as we document in this year’s Forecast evaluation report, it also provided several important lessons about economic and fiscal forecasting as such a large and novel shock…