Category Archive: Forecast evaluation report

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Forecast evaluation report – December 2021

The pandemic delivered one of the largest peacetime shocks to the UK economy in history last year. And that resulted in the largest forecast errors on record. But, as we document in this year’s Forecast evaluation report, it also provided several important lessons about economic and fiscal forecasting as such a large and novel shock…

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Monthly profiles and ready reckoners

On 9 December alongside the Forecast evaluation report, we published monthly profiles for receipts, spending and borrowing in 2021-22 consistent with our October 2021 Economic and fiscal outlook, updated ready reckoners and a working paper on how to improve the representation of uncertainty around our central forecasts.    

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Forecast evaluation report – December 2021

Our annual FER examines how our forecasts compare to subsequent outturn data and identifies lessons for future forecasts. The pandemic brought about the largest shock to the economy and public finances since the OBR was established. This report will look at its impact on our forecasts over 2020-21, and what we can learn for future…

Annual report on forecast accuracy published 9 December

Latest Forecast evaluation report to be published on 9 December

Our latest Forecast evaluation report (FER) will be published at 11am on Thursday 9 December. Our annual FER examines how our forecasts compare to subsequent outturn data and identifies lessons for future forecasts. The pandemic brought about the largest shock to the economy and public finances since the OBR was established. This report will look…

Real GDP outtruns and forecasts

Forecast evaluation report 2021

Next year’s Forecast evaluation report will look back at what will probably be the largest official economic forecast errors ever, reflecting the full effect of the coronavirus pandemic on the economy and public finances in 2020-21. In this year’s brief report, we look back at our March 2018 and March 2019 forecasts for 2019-20. Both…