Category Archive: Forecast evaluation report

Annual report on forecast accuracy to be published on 22 January

Forecast evaluation report to be published on 22 January

15 January 2021

Our annual Forecast evaluation report (FER), examines how our forecasts compare to subsequent outturn data and identifies lessons for future forecasts. This time we have streamlined the FER to focus on how our March 2018 and March 2019 economy and fiscal forecasts for 2019-20 fared against the outturns. The report will be published here on…

Stacked bar chart showing the in-year and growth forecast differences in borrowing between March 2016 and November 2016

Subdued economic growth in line with our initial post-referendum forecast

19 December 2019

Our first post-referendum forecast – from November 2016 – has performed remarkably well for GDP growth in the period since mid-2016. But despite that we overestimated borrowing in 2018-19 – because the public finances at the time of the referendum were in better shape than the available data suggested. Read more about the Welfare trends report…