Our 2026 Forecast evaluation report evaluates successive forecasts for 2024-25. The ongoing impact of unexpected shocks – particularly the 2022 energy shock – explains a large portion of our 2024-25 forecast differences, offering lessons for forecasting the impact of energy price shocks such as the one we are currently experiencing. We also provide an initial evaluation of the fiscal multipliers framework used in the Autumn 2024 forecast. Collectively, these assessments highlight the uncertainty around our central forecasts, which represent the centre of a range of possible outcomes, and the resulting importance of risk and scenario analysis.
