Category Archive: Economic and fiscal outlook

The Chancellor has commissioned the OBR to produce our next forecast on Tuesday 3 March 2026. We will publish an updated Economic and fiscal outlook on that day.

Richard Hughes has written to the Chancellor of the Exchequer and Chair of the Treasury Select Committee to submit his resignation as Chair of the Office for Budget Responsibility. His letter of resignation is available below.

Read the executive summary of the November 2025 Economic and fiscal outlook.

On 3 September 2025 the Chancellor commissioned us to publish our latest outlook for the economy and public finances on Wednesday 26 November. We have now agreed the timetable for the forecast process and published the detail below. Update on 14 November: Financial market assumptions and the incorporation of outturn data The window in which…

We have published our updated tax and spending ‘ready reckoner’ consistent with our March 2025 Economic and fiscal outlook. Our ready reckoner allows anyone to obtain quick, indicative estimates of the fiscal impact of a particular change in one or more economic variables. Read our article on the ready reckoner to find out more.

The Chancellor has announced that the Budget will take place on Wednesday 26 November 2025. Our latest outlook for the economy and public finances will be released on the same day.

Since the publication of our March 2025 Economic and fiscal outlook (EFO) we have received a request for further detail on tobacco and vaping duty elasticities. We have published this new supplementary forecast information below and on the March 2025 EFO page.  

We have published our latest long-term assumptions, consistent with the forecast in our March 2025 Economic and fiscal outlook (EFO) and additional information on the number of award reviews that will be affected by tightening criteria in the March 2025 personal independence payment policy costing, below and on the March 2025 EFO page.

Since the publication of our March 2025 Economic and fiscal outlook (EFO) we have received a request for further detail on key fiscal aggregates for our trade scenarios. We have published this new supplementary forecast information below and on the March 2025 EFO page.

Since the publication of our October 2024 Economic and fiscal outlook (EFO) we have received a request for further information on our forecast for static costing of the changes to employer National Insurance contributions. We have published this new supplementary forecast information below and on the October 2024 EFO page.