In 2017 we produced our first Fiscal risks report (FRR), an assessment of the shocks and pressures that could threaten our forecast for the public finances over the medium term and fiscal sustainability over the longer term. In this, our second report, we revisit and broaden that assessment in light of recent economic and fiscal…
Author Archives: Harriet Price
Sharp rise in borrowing so far in 2019-20
21 August 2019
Borrowing has risen relative to last year in each of the past four months. For the year to date, it is now up £6.0 billion on a year earlier – already a little above the £5.7 billion full-year rise implied by our March forecast. Spending growth has picked up to around twice the rate we…
Supplementary forecast information release
20 August 2019
Since the publication of our March 2019 Economic and fiscal outlook we have received a request for further detail on the VAT standard rated share of consumer spending. We have published this new supplementary forecast information on the March 2019 EFO page.
OBR assesses fiscal risks: what might hit the public finances over the next five or 50 years?
18 July 2019
Governments are there to manage society’s risks, but also risks to the public finances. Our second Fiscal risks report concludes that perennial issues of abrupt shocks, slower-building pressures and risks taken on by choice are largely as they were two years ago. But Brexit risks loom larger as ‘no deal’ is countenanced at the highest…
Overview of the July 2019 Fiscal risks report
18 July 2019
In 2017 we produced our first Fiscal risks report (FRR), an assessment of the shocks and pressures that could threaten our forecast for the public finances over the medium term and fiscal sustainability over the longer term. In this, our second report, we revisit and broaden that assessment in light of recent economic and fiscal…
Fiscal risks report 2019
13 June 2019
Our second Fiscal risks report will be published at 9.30am on Thursday 18 July, two years since our inaugural report on risks to the public finances. Commissioned by Parliament in 2015, the report identifies and analyses risks to the medium term outlook for the public finances and to long-term fiscal sustainability. It covers a wide…
Borrowing in April little changed from last year
22 May 2019
Borrowing fell by just £33 million in April compared with last year, despite a £0.8 billion special dividend received on RBS shares. After the sharp drop in borrowing in 2018-19, we expect a small rise this year due to tax and spending giveaways. The 2018-19 outturn was revised down by £1.1 billion this month and…
Deficit fell by 40 per cent in 2018-19
24 April 2019
Today provides the first provisional outturn estimate for the budget deficit for the full 2018-19 financial year: £24.7 billion, the lowest since 2001-02. Borrowing was £17.2 billion lower than in 2017-18, but £1.8 billion above our March forecast. However, in recent years the initial outturn estimate of the deficit has on average been revised down…
OECD commissioned to lead second external review of the OBR
11 April 2019
International and UK experts will undertake an independent review of the Office for Budget Responsibility this summer, assessing its performance and adherence to internationally agreed principles of best practice for independent fiscal institutions. Under the legislation that created the OBR, the organisation is required to commission an external review every five years. The OBR’s non-executive…
OBR to produce independent forecasts of devolved Welsh tax revenues
9 April 2019
In accordance with the Welsh Government’s fiscal framework, we will prepare and publish independent forecasts of devolved Welsh tax revenues for the 2019-20 Welsh Government Budget onwards. We have agreed a Memorandum of Understanding, Terms of Reference and a Financial Framework to guide this work. Yn unol â fframwaith cyllidol Llywodraeth Cymru bydd yr OBR yn…
Deficit continues to fall in 2018-19
21 March 2019
Broad-based growth in tax receipts and lower debt interest spending continued to push the deficit down relative to last year in February. With only one month of 2018-19 to go, borrowing is down almost half relative to the same period in 2017-18 – broadly in line with our recent forecast.