Author Archives: Harriet Price

Robert Chote thanks the OBR’s staff, alumni, contributors and stakeholders in a video on its 10th anniversary. Robert Chote thanks the OBR’s staff, alumni, contributors and stakeholders on its 10th anniversary 🎂#10yearsofOBR pic.twitter.com/hf5Mr5eaq0 — Office for Budget Responsibility (@OBR_UK) May 14, 2020

We have published a new paper studying the evolution of tax revenues and other sources of government income between 2007-08 and 2018-19 – respectively the last full year before the financial crisis and the last full year before the coronavirus crisis.

Very strong spending growth outweighed strong receipts growth this month, leaving the usual January surplus smaller than it was a year ago. But, over the first ten months of 2019-20, borrowing continues to rise relative to the same period year, albeit at a slower pace than is implied by our latest full-year forecast.  

Borrowing has risen so far this year, but, following substantial revisions over the past two months, the year-to-date rise is now slower than the full-year rise in our restated March forecast. That said, with four months of the year to go, risks remain: January is a big month for receipts, while bonus season and end-year…

We have restated our March 2019 borrowing forecast to include recent ONS statistical changes but have not incorporated any other new data, new judgements nor include an update to the economy forecast. After incorporating these changes, borrowing has increased materially by around £20bn each year. We wrote to the Treasury on 29 October about our intention to publish…

Borrowing in the first half of 2019-20 was revised down by £5.2 billion, thanks to lower central government spending and lower local authority borrowing. But it rose by £2.3 billion on a year earlier in October alone. That leaves the year-to-date deficit up £4.3 billion on the same period last year – a 10 per…

Publication of our restated forecast will no longer go ahead today following advice from the Cabinet Secretary. As we notified the Treasury and Treasury Select Committee on 29 October, we had planned to publish a technical restatement of our March public finance forecast this morning, bringing it into line with current ONS statistical treatment –…

Mid-way through 2019-20, borrowing is up £7.2 billion on the same point last year, with strong growth in public spending outweighing more modest growth in receipts. Prospects for full-year borrowing will depend on the extent to which spending growth slows – as seems likely – and whether receipts growth is maintained – which depends in…

Borrowing in 2018-19 was revised up by £15.8 billion this month to £41.4 billion, thanks largely to statistical changes. These include planned improvements to the accounting treatment of student loans and a substantial correction to corporation tax data. The effect of the changes in 2019-20 leaves the deficit on course to exceed our March forecast…

The Chancellor used last week’s Spending Round to announce a significant increase in departmental spending in 2020-21. The OBR’s Budget Responsibility Committee gave evidence to the Treasury Select Committee today on the fiscal implications of the announcement. In addition, Robert Chote has written to the Interim Chair, John Mann, explaining our role during a spending…