Author Archives: Harriet Price

Fiscal risks and sustainability 2024 postponed

This has been postponed in light of the announcement of a General Election on Thursday 4 July. Our latest report on Fiscal risks and sustainability (FRS) will be published on Tuesday 2 July. The 2024 FRS report will focus on three current pressures on the public finances: Climate change, where we will explore the potential…

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Welsh taxes outlook – February 2024

We have published an update to the Welsh taxes outlook (WTO) with new forecasts for land transaction tax and landfill disposals tax receipts, including evaluations of our previous forecasts including for the Welsh rates of income tax. The report is available in English and Welsh language. Welsh taxes outlook Rhagolwg trethi Cymreig

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Forecast evaluation report – January 2023

Our Forecast evaluation report will be published today at 11am. This annual report compares our forecasts against subsequent outturn data and will identify lessons for future forecasts.

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Year-to-date deficit rises, but by less than forecast

Borrowing in the first nine months of 2022-23 was £128.1 billion, up £5.1 billion on last year but £2.7 billion below our November forecast profile in the headline figures and £11.3 billion below profile on a like-for-like basis (correcting for a temporary difference in student loans figures in our forecast profile versus ONS outturn). This…

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Spring 2023 forecast date announced

The Chancellor has announced that the Spring Budget 2023 will take place on Wednesday 15 March. That day we will release the latest outlook for the economy and public finances.

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Details regarding our upcoming Economic and fiscal outlook

Press briefing We will publish our latest Economic and fiscal outlook (EFO) on Thursday 17 November, once the Chancellor has completed his Autumn Statement in Parliament. Richard Hughes, OBR Chair, will present the main judgements and conclusions of the EFO live on Slido or on our YouTube channel at 2pm. There will be a Q&A…

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Update on our Autumn 2022 forecast

The Chancellor has announced that the publication of our forecast will be set to a later date of 17 November. That day our latest outlook for the economy and public finances will accompany the Chancellor’s Autumn Statement. Earlier this month we published a timetable for the 31 October forecast process. We have now amended the…

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OBR meeting with the Prime Minister and Chancellor

The OBR’s Budget Responsibility Committee met with the Prime Minister and Chancellor this morning. We discussed the economic and fiscal outlook and the forecast we are preparing for the Chancellor’s Medium-term Fiscal Plan. We will deliver the first iteration of that forecast to the Chancellor on Friday 7 October and will set out the full…

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Exchange of letters between Mel Stride MP and Richard Hughes

In August the Chair of the Treasury Select Committee, Mel Stride MP and Chair Richard Hughes exchanged letters regarding the OBR’s preparations for a potential Emergency Budget. Richard Hughes has now updated Mel Stride on the 23 November forecast timetable.

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Next steps in the November 2022 forecast

The Chancellor has commissioned the OBR to publish an updated forecast on 23 November alongside the Medium-Term Fiscal Plan. As part of every forecasting process, we provide the Chancellor with a series of interim drafts of our forecasts as an input into policymaking in the run-up to the final, published Economic and fiscal outlook. The Chancellor…