The Institute of Government invited Robert Chote, Chairman, to discuss the OBR, economic policy and the UK outlook with Bronwen Maddox, Director of the Institute for Government.
The budget deficit fell in December relative to the previous year and remains down year-to-date in 2017-18, partly driven by lower EU contributions. We expect weaker self-assessment receipts to push borrowing higher from January as income shifting effects from last year unwind.
January 25, 2018
The introduction of universal credit (UC) is one of the most significant reforms to the welfare system since the Beveridge Report. It will replace six existing means-tested benefits and tax credits for people of working age, paying more than £60 billion a year to around 7 million households by the time it is fully rolled out.
January 25, 2018
Since the publication of our November 2017 Economic and fiscal outlook we have received a request for further detail underlying our long-term economic determinants. We have published this new supplementary forecast information on the November 2017 EFO page.
January 23, 2018
Since the publication of our November 2017 Economic and fiscal outlook we have received a request for further detail underlying our household debt servicing costs forecast. We have published this new supplementary forecast information on the November 2017 EFO page.
December 21, 2017
Following Lord Burns’ appointment as Chairman of Ofcom, with effect from 1 January, he will step down as a non-executive member of the Office for Budget Responsibility with effect from 31 December. The process for appointing his successor will commence shortly.
November 30, 2017
Since the publication of our November 2017 Economic and fiscal outlook we have received a request for further detail underlying our housing supply forecast. We have published this new supplementary forecast information on the November 2017 EFO page.
November 22, 2017
We have revised down our productivity and GDP forecasts and, despite lower borrowing this year, revised up our forecast for the budget deficit. The Chancellor has raised the deficit further with higher public spending and a net tax giveaway.
Read more in the November 2017 Economic and fiscal outlook.
November 20, 2017
The UK economy has slowed this year as households’ real incomes and spending have been squeezed by higher inflation. GDP growth has been a little weaker than we expected in March, but once again we have been more surprised by the strength of employment growth and the corresponding weakness of productivity growth. The persistence of weak productivity growth does not bode well for the UK’s growth potential in the years ahead.
November 16, 2017
The ONS has reclassified English housing associations to the private sector with effect from today. Our November 2017 forecast will reflect this reclassification.
October 10, 2017
The OBR is likely to revise down potential productivity growth in its November forecast, weakening the outlook for the public finances. This would be partially offset by lower equilibrium unemployment, more hours worked and downward revisions to borrowing last year.
September 26, 2017
We have decided to push back the publication of our 2017 Welfare trends report from 10 October to later in the financial year. The report will focus on the forecasting of Universal credit ahead of next year’s planned surge in the number of UC recipients.
July 13, 2017
Confronted by a vulnerable fiscal position and a challenging political environment, the Government will need to review the fiscal risks that it has exposed itself to for policy reasons, to prepare for the cost of unexpected shocks and to address some long-term pressures on receipts and spending. And to do so while managing the uncertainties posed by Brexit,
November 16, 2016
The depth and breadth of the economic and fiscal analysis published by the OBR “can be considered as best-practice, and could be used as a benchmark by other advanced countries”, according to the International Monetary Fund’s Fiscal Transparency Evaluation for the UK. “While it is still relatively early in its track record, the OBR’s forecasting record indicates a lower degree of bias than under the Treasury forecasting regime.”
The Office for Budget Responsibility: