The economic and fiscal outlook has brightened somewhat since November. The near-term downturn is set to be shallower; medium-term output to be higher; and the budget deficit to be lower. But persistent supply-side challenges remain. Against this backdrop, the Chancellor has spent two-thirds of the improvement in the fiscal outlook on his Budget measures, providing more support with energy bills and business investment, while boosting labour supply. This lowers inflation this year and raises employment and output in the medium term. But it leaves debt falling by only the narrowest of margins in five years’ time.