On 27 December 2023 the Chancellor announced that the Spring Budget 2024 will be held on Wednesday 6 March and commissioned us to publish our latest outlook for the economy and public finances that day.
We have now agreed the timetable for the forecast process and published the detail below.
Update on 23 February:
Financial market assumptions and the incorporation of outturn data
The final pre-measures forecast was sent to the Chancellor on 14 February. This included:
- Average interest rates and other market determinants over the ten working days to 23 January;
- Our economy forecast that closed on 5 February – informed by the latest ONS population projections and reweighted LFS data;
- Our fiscal forecast that closed on 14 February – incorporating January’s Public Sector Finances outturn, including revised PAYE and NIC1 receipts.
EFO and supporting documents
The main Economic and fiscal outlook (EFO) document and associated supporting material will be published on our website once the Chancellor’s statement is complete. A full set of supplementary spreadsheets will also be published alongside the EFO. For this event, we will present the fiscal supplementary tables in a new more user-friendly format categorised by Policy, Receipts, Expenditure, Debt interest and Aggregates. Certain databases will be published around a week later. Please get in touch if you would like further details on what we expect to be available and when.