Year-to-date borrowing moves further below our forecast

The ONS release this morning shows borrowing in the first six months of 2023-24 totalled £81.7 billion, £15.3 billion above the same period last year but £19.8 billion below the monthly profile consistent with our March forecast. The downside surprise is more than explained by higher central government receipts (£14.7 billion above profile), reflecting stronger nominal tax bases, alongside lower borrowing by local authorities (£6.6 billion). This was partly offset by higher borrowing by public corporations and central government spending which were £0.9 billion and £0.6 billion above profile respectively.