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Working paper No.4: A small model of the UK economy

This paper presents a small model of the UK economy extended to take account of credit risk premia and unconventional monetary policy. It can be used to run simulations or provide alternative economic scenarios. The model can be applied to provide some indication of how the stance of monetary policy might adjust in response to…

Working paper No.3: Cyclically adjusting the public finances

This working paper reassesses the size of the cyclical adjustment coefficients considering a range of approaches. Using these coefficients and the OBR’s historical output gap series we produce an updated historical series for structural net borrowing. We have also published a database of all the major tax policy measures announced in Budgets since 1970.

Briefing paper No.4: How we present uncertainty

In our latest Briefing paper we set out our approach to presenting uncertainty both about the outlook for the economy and about the performance of revenues and spending in any given state of the economy.

Policy costings document March 2012

March 2012 All policy costings presented to the Office for Budget Responsibility at Budget 2012 were scrutinised and certified.  The Budget 2012 policy costings document sets out the methodologies underpinning these various costings.  The OBR identified costings for policy measures which it deemed to be particularly uncertain – these are listed in annex B of…

Policy Costings document November 2011

November 2011 The Office for Budget Responsibility certified all of the costings of policy decisions announced at the Autumn Statement (and measures announced post-Budget 2011 but confirmed at the Autumn Statement).  For information about these costings see the Autumn Statement 2011 policy costings document.  Annex A of this document contains further detail about the OBR scrutiny…

Policy Costings document March 2011

March 2011 At Budget 2011 the Office for Budget Responsibility certified all but one policy costing presented to it by the government.  All Budget 2011 costings are detailed in the HMT policy costings document.  Our approach to the certification of costings is set out in annex B of the document. Read the Policy Costings document

Policy Costings document October 2010

October 2010 The Office for Budget Responsibility certified costings for some Annually Managed Expenditure measures included within the October 2010 Spending Review. The costings we scrutinised are set out in the HM Treasury Spending Review Policy Costings document. Our certification is contained in Chapter 3. Read the Policy Costings document